Page 5 - FSUOGM Week 39

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

as Azerbaijan prepares to launch gas flows the army. So far none of the fighting has taken
through SGC to Italy and Greece from the Shah place near energy assets. BP has also reported
Deniz gas project in the Caspian Sea, also man- that operations in Azerbaijan are continuing as
aged by BP. Supplies were expected to begin in usual.
October, but construction was held up due to In comments to Argus, however, a SOCAR
coronavirus restrictions. The Trans-Adriatic spokesman said it “can hardly be a coincidence
Pipeline (TAP) consortium, which operates that attacks by Armenian occupying forces”
SGC’s European leg, told NewsBase earlier this intensified ahead of SGC’s start-up. Infrastruc-
month that it was “committed” to sending the ture could end up in Armenian hands and
first gas to Europe by the end of the year, without Azerbaijan’s own military actions are “the major
disclosing an exact start date. security factor for the Southern Gas Corridor
Armenia could in theory target BTC with and other assets of strategic importance for
shells, but it would face condemnation for the Europe and Azerbaijan,” the representative said.
resulting environmental disaster, and for jeop-
ardising European energy security. Furthermore, Armenian gas supply
the parts of the pipeline nearest to its border Another risk is that Azerbaijan could target
are buried up to two metres below the ground, some of the gas pipelines distributing Russian
meaning they would not make easy targets. gas across Armenia.
There is also no precedent. Armenia has not Armenia is a captive gas market, relying on
attacked Azeri pipelines during previous esca- Russia’s Gazprom for practically all its supplies.
lations in the conflict. In 2008, though, Geor- Gas is also used as a major source of electric-
gia accused Russia of launching a missile strike ity supply. These pipelines are physically more
against the pipeline, which Moscow denies. exposed to shelling than those in Azerbaijan.
Earlier that year the Kurdistan Workers’ Party Were Azeri forces to target key pipelines, though,
(PKK) claimed responsibility for an attack in Armenia’s capital Yerevan would likely be spared
Turkey that left the pipeline out of action for sev- from disruptions thanks to nearby gas storage
eral weeks. facilities operated by Gazprom.
By disrupting gas supplies, Armenia would Gazprom Armenia reported in July that gas
also incur the wrath of Turkey, which has already pipelines near the Azeri border had been dam-
vowed to stand by its “brother nation” Azerbai- aged, leading to a disruption in local supplies.
jan “with all its resources and heart.” Turkish It did not specify a reason, although the outage
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called coincided with shelling by the Azeri army.
on Armenia to withdraw immediately from While Turkey stands behind Azerbaijan, Rus-
Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia reported on the sia has traditionally supported Armenia in the
afternoon of September 29 that one of its fighter conflict, although it is also on friendly terms with
jets had been shot down by Turkey, indicating Azerbaijan. The pair have a security pact and
that Ankara is scaling up its involvement in the Armenia hosts Russian military bases. Russia
conflict. and Turkey are already tangled up in two proxy
Azerbaijan’s national oil company (NOC) wars in Libya and Syria, and there is a danger
SOCAR said on September 29 that the country’s they could end up locked in a third in the South
oil and gas infrastructure was being guarded by Caucasus. ™

Week 39 30•September•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5