Page 11 - MEOG Week 49 2022

MEOG NEWS IN BRIEF MEOG

analysts predict that production could shrink 390.5 mln t, the lowest level since 2018. Iraq is Iraqi crude shipments this year. The third top
by anything between 0.5mn bpd and 1.5mn the second largest seaborne exporter of crude destination is the EU, with 21.4 mln tonnes,
bpd. oil in the Arabian Gulf after Saudi Arabia, or 13.9% of Iraq’s total exports in Jan-Nov
NEWSBASE the third in the world behind Saudi Arabia 2022. Shipments from Iraq to the EU surged
and Russia, and still just ahead of the USA. In by +67.8% y-o-y to in Jan-Nov 2022 from
Iraqi crude oil exports to Jan-Nov 2022, Iraqi ports accounted for 8.3% 12.7 mln tonnes in JanNov 2021, but are still
below the 21.8 mln tonnes in Jan-Nov 2019”,
of global crude oil loadings. This only covers
the EU skyrocketed this cargoes loading in Basrah (pretty much the Banchero Costa concluded.
only loading port in Iraq), and does not even
HELLENIC SHIPPING
year include the exports which go by pipeline via
Turkey, i.e. Kirkuk grade oil from Northern
Despite the fact that crude oil sea loadings Iraq. About 71 percent of volumes loaded in GAS
from Iraq are mainly headed towards China Basrah are carried in VLCCs, and about 28
and India, the EU has also emerged as a percent is loaded in Suezmaxes”, Banchero Erdogan considering
leading destination during the first 11 months Costa said.
of 2022. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker The shipbroker added that “in the 12 reviving gas transit plan
Banchero Costa said that “2022 has turned out months of 2019, Iraqi seaborne crude oil
to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, exports were as high as 176.3 mln tonnes. In Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
despite the surging oil prices and risks of 2020, however, due to limited global demand is reportedly looking to revive the idea of
economic recession. In the first 11 months of due to the pandemic, Iraq managed to ship bringing Turkmen natural gas via his country
2022, global crude oil loadings were up +8.6% just 151.7 mln t of crude oil, down -13.9% to Europe.
yo-y at 1,865.7 mln tonnes, excluding all y-o-y. Things didn’t really improve much in Bloomberg on December 9 cited senior
cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking 2021, when seaborne crude oil exports from Turkish officials as saying Erdogan wants to
data from Refinitiv. This was well above the Iraq were further down by -1.3% y-o-y to see the idea in play, but they noted that any
1,718.3 mln tonnes in Jan-Nov 2021, but 149.8 mln tonnes. This year, however, there solution would likely take years to implement.
slightly below the 1,926.9 mln tonnes in the has been a clear turnaround. In the first 11 Erdogan is set to meet Turkmenistan’s
same period of 2019”. months of 2022, Iraq exported 154.4 mln president Serdar Berdimuhamedov and Ilham
According to the shipbroker, “exports from tonnes of crude oil, which was a +14.5% y-o-y Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, which lies
Saudi Arabia are up +17.7% y-o-y to 332.3 improvement over the 134.9 mln tonnes in the across the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan,
mln tonnes in Jan-Nov 2022, above pre-Covid same 11-month period of last year. This was in the Caspian resort town of Awaza on
levels. Seaborne shipments from other AG also the best performance since 2019, when December 14.
countries are also up by +10.4% y-oy to 471.0 Iraq exported 161.7 mln tonnes in the first 11 If realised, the gas transportation project
mln tonnes in the same period, but still below months of the year”. would mean carrying Turkmen gas on ships
pre-Covid levels. Exports from Russia have “In terms of destinations for the shipments to Azerbaijan and then pumping it into
also increased by +11.2% y-o-y to 199.4 mln from Iraq, it’s still a head to head between the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) chain of
tonnes, slightly below the 206.6 mln t in the Mainland China and India, with Europe in pipelines that stretch from Azerbaijan to
same period of 2019. From the USA, exports third place. In the first 11 months of 2022, Southern Europe via Georgia and Turkey, the
surged by +24.6% y-o-y to 149.8 mln t this Iraq shipped 47.2 mln tonnes to India, which quoted officials, who spoke on condition of
year. From West Africa, however, volumes are represents a +3.1% y-o-y increase from 45.8 anonymity, said.
down -3.3% y-o-y to 154.6 mln t. From the mln tonnes in Jan-Nov 2021, and also more As Kazakhstan, which has plans to export
North Sea, exports are also down by -1.7% than the 45.8 mln t in Jan-Nov 2019. India more of its gas via Azerbaijan’s pipelines,
y-o-y to 98.4 mln tonnes in Jan-Nov 2022”. now accounts for 30.6% of Iraqi crude oil has found out, the Caspian Sea route for
“In terms of demand, seaborne imports shipments so far this year. Iraq also shipped gas exports is undermined by a distinct
into the European Union (27) increased by 46.1 mln tonnes so far this year to Mainland lack of oil tankers that ply the inland body
+12.5% y-o-y to 412.0 mln t in Jan-Nov 2022. China, which is an increase of +7.1% y-o-y of water. Plans to establish a trans-Caspian
Imports to India also surged +11.5% y-o-y to from 43.1 mln tonnes in the same period of pipeline have come to nothing over the
203.7 mln t in the same period. Imports to 2021, but below the record 49.4 mln tonnes years, with Russia, another state that borders
China, however, declined by -5.2% y-o-y to in Jan-Nov 2020. China accounts for 29.9% of the Caspian Sea, wary of any such initiative

Week 49 07•December•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P11