Page 7 - FSUOGM Week 03 2023

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Russian gas will return to Europe,

Qatari energy minister predicts

Qatar at least believes Europe will forgive and forget and resume gas flow from Russia.

RUSSIA RUSSIAN gas will eventually return to the EU, at shipments to buyers that refused to pay in rubles
least according to Qatari Energy Minister Saad in May, and then by restricting flow via the Nord
WHAT: Sherida al-Kaabi, despite the bloc’s commitment Stream 1 pipeline and reducing deliveries via
Qatar’s energy minister to phase out those supplies in the coming years. other routes.
says Russian gas will “The Europeans today are saying there’s no Some of that replacement gas has come from
return to Europe. way we’re going back” to Russian gas, al-Kaabi Qatar, another leading supplier to the European
said at the Atlantic Council Energy Forum in market. These extra volumes would have gone to
WHY: Abu Dhabi on January 16. “We’re all blessed to Asia, but soaring prices in Europe and the Chi-
The EU has replaced 80% have to be able to forget and to forgive. And I nese economic slowdown have led to their being
of Russian gas, but the think things get mended with time … they learn diverted.
minister believes the bloc from that situation and probably have a much “Russian gas is going back, in my view, to
will resort back to the bigger diversity [of energy supplies].” Europe,” al-Kaabi said.
country’s supplies in a Russia has traditionally been Europe’s larg-
more diversified energy est supplier of oil and gas. In the months before The outlook for Russian gas
mix. Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine, Rus- There is a lot of uncertainty about how much
sian state-owned Gazprom was supplying as Russian gas could flow to Europe this year,
WHAT NEXT: much as 40% of the continent’s gas. with the war in Ukraine seemingly far from
It is clear that Russia Now the picture is radically different. The EU over. With the Nord Stream 1 pipeline now sev-
will never have the same has replaced 80% of the gas it previously got from ered, and sanctions making westward flow via
market share it used to Russia, European Commission President Ursula the Yamal-Europe pipeline no longer possible,
in Europe, but a peace von der Leyen said on January 17, adding that Russian deliveries are likely to range between
deal in Ukraine could EU sanctions would “plunge the Russian econ- 0.9 and 4.5bn cubic metres per month.
result in more Russian omy into recession for decades.” Moving forward, whether or not Russian
gas heading back to the Russia has been making drastic cuts to gas flow will ramp up once more will depend of
continent. its supply to Europe – initially withholding course on events in Ukraine.

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