Page 12 - FSUOGM Week 36 2021

FSUOGM NEWS IN BRIEF FSUOGM

RUSSIA low underground storage levels being key Lukoil CEO says OPEC+
indicators.
Gazprom pledges to double at 183bn cubic metres (+6 bcm year on alliance created forever
Exports to Europe for 2021 are guided
dividend on record profits year), and even the potential launch of The OPEC+ alliance has been created
Nord Stream 2 this year should not affect
forever, not for a short period time, its
Russia's natural gas major Gazprom at the this number. Total gas production for 2021 regulation can change depending on the
conference call following record-smashing should be at a 10-year high of 510 bcm (+55 situation, Russian oil company Lukoil’s CEO
1H21 IFRS results reiterated the dividend bcm y/y), Gazprom projects. Vagit Alekperov said in an interview with
base of RUB845bn ($11.5bn) or RUB17.85 Considering the latest incident affecting Kommersant business daily, released on
per share, while pledging that the dividend the supplies to Yamal-Europe pipeline, the September 7.
for 2021 should be double that and be no affected production unit should be replaced “I think that the OPEC+ alliance has
less than RUB36 per share. with a unit with higher throughput by been created not for a short period of time,
Gazprom's Alexander Ivannikov said 2022, while another damaged unit should but forever. But its regulation can vary
that Gazprom traditionally yields around relaunch in the coming days. "The launch of depending on the situation,” he said.
6-7% in dividends, implying a valuation of these units should allow Gazprom to return Alekperov added that the current
RUB460-RUB470 per share. gas and condensate production to pre- parameters of the oil output reduction
As followed by bne IntelliNews, net accident levels," Sova wrote. agreement are set until the end of 2022 and
income for Gazprom tripled year on "We are focusing on management’s hoped they will not change until the date.
year to RUB521bn ($7bn) in the second optimism in pricing not only for the rest Lukoil has reduced production to
quarter. The company cashed in on strong of this year but in 2021, which leads us to 90,000 barrels per day and hopes to recover
recovery in gas prices in Europe due to think we could see upward revisions in non- production after the agreement expires, he
increased economic activity, a hot summer FSU export price forecasts for 2022," Sova added.
and greater gas injection into storage, and commented. “We have a potential. The company has
supply remaining constrained. Sova analysts are also "not too surprised effective reserves. The decision to increase
"Regarding Gazprom’s dividend by management not guiding for a significant drilling in Russia will guarantee not only
guidance, we are in line with the figure increase in exports to Europe, in part due stabilization, but also growth of the output
of RUB36/share but ahead of Bloomberg to transportation issues (i.e. having to book by around 1.5–2% beyond 2022,” he said.
consensus’ figure of RUB35/share, although and pay for additional capacity in Ukraine) The OPEC+ countries agreed to reduce
we are behind the FactSet figure of RUB38/ and what seems to be the company’s their oil output by 9.7 million barrels per
share," Sova Capital commented, while strategy regarding Nord Stream 2." day in May 2020 to fight the consequences
believing that the management update will "We did not think that even 5.6 bcm of the global coronavirus pandemic, with
be viewed positively by the market and exported via Nord Stream 2, if possible, Russia’s share of 2.5 million barrels per day.
affirming a Buy call on Gazprom's shares. would have a significant impact on prices or The cut was narrowed to 7.7 million barrels
Otherwise, the management does not the outlook on the European market," Sova per day for August–December 2020, and
see any reason for a sharp correction in analysts wrote. then to 5.8 million barrels per day.
record-high European gas prices in the Alekperov said that oil prices of
near term, with forward contracts and above U.S. $100 per barrel can stimulate

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