Page 7 - MEOG Week 18 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

OPEC+ unlikely to alter its course

OPEC+ FEW surprises are expected when the OPEC+ consecutive 400,000 bpd per month increases,
group meets later this week to decide on June altering this approach for the first time in April.
production targets as oil output struggles The July deal had provided the baselines for
to keep pace with quotas and prices remain Saudi and Russia to increase by 500,000 bpd
favourable for producers. to 11.5mn bpd each, with the UAE’s rising by
Surveys suggest that OPEC production rose 332,000 bpd to 3.5mn bpd as Iraq and Kuwait
by just 40,000 barrels per day in April, despite also receive uplifts of 150,000 bpd each, taking
Targets (mbpd)
the group’s targets providing for an increase their baselines to 4.803mn bpd and 2.959mn
of 254,000 bpd. With this in mind, it appears bpd respectively. April 2022 May 2022
However, with conflict in Ukraine raising
highly unlikely that the wider group will come OPEC
near the 432,000 bpd hike targeted for May. concerns about Russian exports and uncer-
Algeria
1.002
Given the consensus on this figure, and the tainty about Kazakh flows owing to mainte- 1.013
group’s enduring propensity for conservativ- nance at loading facilities, the group largely 1.465
1.45
Angola
ism, a similar target uptick is anticipated for ignored the potential combined hike of 1.6mn
Congo (Brazzaville)
0.309
June quotas. Brent crude prices sat in a range bpd, adding just 32,000 bpd to the now-cus- 0.312
Equatorial Guinea
of $98-108 per barrel during April, continu- tomary increase. 0.121 0.122
Those fears persist while force majeure in
ing to buoy the coffers of exporters, with Saudi Gabon 0.177 0.179
Arabia and Iraq providing particularly upbeat Libya has reduced output in the restive North
Iran
economic updates. African country. Exempt Exempt
Last month’s meeting was notable by the Iraq 4.414 4.461
While there are also concerns about Chinese
almost complete glossing over of a July 2021 demand owing to lockdowns as the country
Kuwait
2.665
agreement to heighten significantly the baseline struggles to achieve its ‘zero-Covid’ target, sta- 2.694
Libya
Exempt
reference levels for the top OPEC+ producers bility has been the name of the game for OPEC Exempt
from May 2022. and its partners, and they appear set to keep a 1.753
1.735
Nigeria
In August, the group began a string of steady course.™
Saudi Arabia 10.436 10.549
UAE 3.006 3.04
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Targets (mbpd) Total 25.315 25.588
April 2022 May 2022
OPEC Non-OPEC
Algeria 1.002 1.013 Azerbaijan 0.681 0.688
Angola 1.45 1.465 Bahrain 0.195 0.197
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.309 0.312 Brunei 0.097 0.098
Equatorial Guinea 0.121 0.122 Kazakhstan 1.621 1.638
Gabon 0.177 0.179 Malaysia 0.565 0.571
Iran Exempt Exempt Mexico 1.753 1.753
Iraq 4.414 4.461 Oman 0.838 0.846
Kuwait 2.665 2.694 Russia 10.436 10.549
Libya Exempt Exempt Sudan 0.071 0.072
Nigeria 1.735 1.753 South Sudan 0.123 0.124
Saudi Arabia 10.436 10.549 Total 16.38 16.536
UAE 3.006 3.04 OPEC+ 41.695 42.124
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Total 25.315 25.588

Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.681 0.688
Bahrain 0.195 0.197
Brunei 0.097 0.098
Kazakhstan 1.621 1.638
Malaysia 0.565 0.571
Mexico 1.753 1.753
Week 18 04•May•2022 0.838 www. NEWSBASE .com P7
0.846
Oman
Russia 10.436 10.549
Sudan 0.071 0.072
South Sudan 0.123 0.124
Total 16.38 16.536
OPEC+ 41.695 42.124