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estimate of $3,100.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 3.3% last year, down slightly from 3.4% in 2018,​ reports the Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture ministry. After Q2 growth of 4.7% and Q3 growth of 4.1%, Q4 growth fell to 2.1%, largely dragged down by poor industrial performance.
3.2 ​Macro outlook
Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk forecasts the nation's GDP to grow by 4% year on year in 2020​. "Objectively, in 2020, we could reach 4%, according to our estimates," Honcharuk said in an interview with the Ukrainska Pravda online outlet published on February 10. In late January, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasted that the nation's economic growth will reach 3.5% y/y in 2020 vs 3.3% y/y in 2019. "Growth will accelerate "to around 4% in the following years", according to the regulator. Ukraine’s real GDP rose 4.1% y/y in the third quarter of 2019, or 0.6% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The monetary policy easing will contribute to the faster economic growth. High private consumption and investment will remain the main economic growth drivers. At the same time, the contribution of net exports to GDP will remain negative on the back of the real sector’s considerable need for investment imports," the NBU's statement reads.
For 2020, forecasts include:​ IMF + 3%; National Bank of Ukraine +3.5%; World Bank and Ukrainian Government + 3.7%.
With the central bank lowering its 2020 inflation forecast to 4.8%, the goal now is economic growth.​ Cuts in prime “will lead to further decrease in interest rates on loans for corporates and households, stimulating business activity,” the bank said. According to the central bank’s Bank Lending Survey, banks expect an increase in demand for loans from households and
13​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com