Page 14 - UKRRptMar20

businesses in the first quarter. This spring, the prime rate may drop to 9% -- half the level of one year earlier. “The most pronounced reduction in the key policy rate is expected to take pace in the first half of the year,” the bank said.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Ukraine's industrial output fell 5.1% y/y in January after sliding 7.7% y/y in December​, the State Statistics Service reported on February 26. Seasonally adjusted output inched up 1.2% m/m.
Manufacturing output shrank 3.2% y/y in January (after a 5.4% y/y decline in December). In particular, machinery production dropped 10.5% y/y (after a 14.5% y/y decline in December). Metallurgy output dropped 10.3% y/y (vs. a 10.0% y/y decline in December). Meanwhile, food production increased 2.9% y/y (vs. a 2.4% y/y decline in December) and the chemical industry surged 24.4% y/y (after an 8.7% y/y increase in December).
Mining output fell 4.5% y/y in January, after plummeting 8.5% y/y December. In particular, coal production dropped 19.2% y/y, oil and natural gas production slid 3.0% y/y, and iron ore output fell 1.5% y/y. The supply of electricity and natural gas slid 11.8% y/y in January after a 15.7% y/y drop in December.
Regionally, the steepest declines were observed in Zakarpattia (-30.7% y/y), Kharkiv and Ukraine-controlled Luhansk (-15.0% y/y) regions. Growth was strongest in Odesa (12.3% y/y), Mykolayiv (9.6% y/y) and Rivne (3.5% y/y) regions.
14​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com