Page 12 - UKRRptMar20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.3%
-14.8%
4.1%
5.2%
0.2%
0.0%
-6.6%
-9.8%
2.3%
2.5%
3.3%
2.70%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.8%
-14.9%
7.1%
15.7%
8.4%
6.9%
-8.3%
-20.7%
1.8%
7.8%
8.9%
4.90%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.6%
-50.5%
3.9%
7.1%
5.0%
-6.7%
-24.0%
-9.2%
20.1%
18.2%
14.3%
7.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.2%
-21.9%
11.2%
8.0%
-0.7%
-4.3%
-10.1%
-13.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.1%
2.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2,983
3,559
4,021
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
146
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2,638
3,077
3,336
CPI (eop)
22.3%
12.3%
9.1%
4.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
24.9%
43.3%
12.4%
13.7%
9.8%
7.10%
CPI average
25.2%
15.9%
9.4%
8.0%
0.6%
-0.3%
12.1%
48.7%
13.9%
14.4%
10.90 %
8.20%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.9%
9.6%
8.9%
8.7%
8.2%
7.8%
9.7%
9.5%
9.7%
9.9%
9.1%
8.00%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 ​Macroeconomic overview
GDP growth fell to a disappointing 1.5% in the last quarter of 2019,
according to a flash estimate by the State Statistics Service. This indicates GDP growth was at, or below, the 2018 level of 3.3%. After a slow start – 2.5% for the first quarter - Ukraine’s GDP roared ahead in the second quarter, at 4.6%, then fell in the third quarter to 4.1%.
Pulling down the fourth quarter were early fall harvests and lower industrial production​, due to weak steel prices, US tariffs and warm weather cutting energy consumption, Timofei Milovanov, minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture, writes on Facebook. Looking ahead, the State Statistics Service reports that indicator of economic sentiment in the first quarter of 2020 is 103, down from 113.4 in the last year quarter of 2019.
Following the release of lower economic growth number for the fourth quarter, quotations of Ukraine’s GDP-linked warrants fell ​on February 14 by 1% to 107.9% of the nominal value, reports Interfax-Ukraine. At the new GDP levels, Ukraine’s payouts “are very likely to fall below $50mn,” writes Blinov of Alfa-Bank. “We expect Ukraine’s real GDP to grow another 3.2% in 2020, with domestic demand maintaining strong contribution into economic expansion, supported by low inflation.” The warrant payments are trigged if GDP growth is over 3%.
With Ukraine’s 2019 GDP estimated at $154bn, the shadow estimate would mean that Ukraine’s real economy is $190bn. ​Using the government’s new 37mn estimate of Ukraine’s population, this means real GDP per capita is $5,135, almost two thirds higher than the widely accepted
12​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com