Page 4 - AfrElec Week 50 2020

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Global electricity demand

set for modest rebound

after rapid fall in 2020

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is set to be profound
for power demand, with emerging economies driving recovery,

writes Richard Lockhart

GLOBAL GLOBAL electricity demand is forecast to con- decline of 28% this year, after having already
tract by 2% in 2020 and to rebound by a modest fallen by 12% in 2019.
WHAT: 3% in 2021, with growth in China, India and
Global electricity demand other emerging economies driving a global eco- Renewables
is forecast to contract nomic recovery. Green energy is forecast to continue its growth in
by 2% in 2020 and to The 3% rebound would be considerably less 2021, with an increase of 6%, thereby expanding
rebound by a modest 3% than the previous 7% growth seen in 2010, when the share of renewables in the power mix to 29%
in 2021, the IEA says the world recovered from the global financial from 28% in 2020.
crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nuclear power is set for growth of 2.5%
WHY: said in its first ever Electricity Market Report. next year as France and Japan reopen shuttered
China, India and other China will be the only major economy to see plants and new reactors come online in China
emerging economies will higher electricity demand in 2020, the IEA said, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
be the main drivers of a although its growth of 2% is still well below its This growth in renewables and nuclear
global economic recovery recent annual average of 6.5%. means that fossil fuels are set to lose out more in
Other major electricity consumers, including developed economies.
WHAT NEXT: the US, India, Europe, Japan, South Korea and Natural gas is likely to be affected more than
Renewables will continue Southeast Asia, are all set to experience declines coal as a result of an expected rise in natural gas
to dominate new capacity for the year as a whole because of the unprece- prices.
additions, with solar set dented impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) Conversely, in emerging and developing
to overtake wind in 2021 pandemic. economies, such as in Southeast Asia and Africa,
Yet the one big winner in 2020 is renewable demand growth is forecast to outpace increases
energy, demand for which is set to rise by 7% in in renewables and nuclear power, leaving some
2020, elbowing aside conventional sources of room for coal and gas generation to expand.
electricity. The expected net result globally is that coal-
Coal-fired generation is set to fall by 5%, the fired generation will increase by around 3% in
largest annual decrease on record, while nuclear 2021, while gas-fired plants will expand their
will decline by 4% and gas-fired generation by output by roughly 1%. This would lead to a rise
2%. in CO2 emissions from the power sector of
Crucially, CO2 emissions from electricity around 2% in 2021.
generation are on course to shrink by 5% in 2020.
Southeast Asia
Central Role In ASEAN member states, power demand is
“Electricity has a central role in today’s energy forecast to fall by just 1% in 2020. This reflects
world – a role that will only increase in impor- varying dynamics across states, with Indonesia’s
tance as clean energy transitions accelerate,” said power demand predicted to stagnate, pushed
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. down by a massive drop of 11% in May.
Falling demand, lower fuel prices and the By contrast, Vietnam’s demand in the first ten
increase in renewable generation have dragged months of the year grew by 3.2% year on year,
down wholesale electricity prices in 2020. although well below the previous annual average
The IEA’s wholesale electricity market price of 10%.
index, which tracks price movements in major Thailand’s demand dropped by 3.7% in the
advanced economies, shows an average price first eight months, while Malaysia’s was down by

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 50 17•December•2020