Page 5 - AfrElec Week 50 2020

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

5% in the first ten months.
In terms of new power plants, the pandemic 2021 compared to 2020.
has seen a slight slowdown in the region’s coal The IEA said that the greatest uncertainty
expansion. There is currently 20 GW of new for electricity demand in 2021 is the further
coal-fired generating capacity under construc- development of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
tion, mostly in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Phil- measures taken by governments to prevent it
ippines, with more at the pre-construction stage. spreading and the availability, speed of distribu-
However, some plans are being reconsidered tion and effectiveness of vaccines.
and greater emphasis is being placed on natural In terms of renewables in 2021, net additions
gas and renewables. are set to reach a new record of almost 200 GW
For example, the Philippines in October in 2020, while total capacity is anticipated to
announced a moratorium on new coal-fired grow by around 218 GW in 2021, almost 10%
power generation, while projects across Indone- more than 2020.
sia and Thailand face environmental opposition Capacity additions are led by solar PV and
and the exit of major investors. wind, responsible for around 54% (117 GW) and
31% (68 GW) of net additions.
Looking ahead The strong growth is driven by projects
The IEA noted that its 3% forecast for demand delayed this year going ahead in 2021, as several
growth, the equivalent of 700 TWh, was slower governments have granted extensions to imple-
than the projected 5.2% real GDP growth. mentation deadlines, as well as newly financed
Two-thirds of the additional demand is capacity.
anticipated in the Asia-Pacific region. Most of Solar additions are set to overtake wind in
the growth is concentrated in China and India, 2021, with the majority of these expected in
forecast to grow by 5.2% (350 TWh) and 3.6% China, making up around one third (38 GW)
(40 TWh) respectively compared to 2020. of the global total. This is more than double the
Both countries have already recorded signif- expected additions in the United States, which
icant growth rates towards the end of 2020 com- accounts for another 15% of the total.
pared to 2019 demand. Further major absolute additions are antici-
Also in Southeast Asia, electricity demand pated in Europe (21 GW), India (11 GW) and
in 2021 is anticipated to significantly exceed Japan (7 GW).
demand in 2019. Wind, on the other hand, will have 68 GW of
Southeast Asia is predicted to return to pre- net additional capacity in 2021 (of which 89% is
vious growth rates and add 5.4% of demand in onshore).™

Week 50 17•December•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5