Page 14 - FSUOGM Week 01 2021

FSUOGM FSUOGM

pipeline, which puts significant pressure on markets all over the world,” Gary Jones, BP’s financials,” BCS GM notes, expecting the rise
the traditionally pro-Nord Stream 2 Social regional president for Azerbaijan, Georgia and to accelerate this winter and with the 4Q21
Democrats. Turkey, said. EBITDA jumping 70% quarter on quarter to
Merkel approved Nord Stream 2, which The BTC Co. shareholders are: BP (30.1%); $19bn.
will be able to transport 55bn cubic metres AzBTC (25.00%); MOL (8.90%); Equinor This would make it Gazprom’s second-best
of gas per year under the Baltic Sea, to the (8.71%); TPAO (6.53%); Eni (5.00%); quarterly EBITDA in history after 1Q13’s
detriment of Ukraine, which stands to lose TotalEnergies (5.00%), Itochu (3.40%); Inpex $20.6bn. But the company would not stop
$2bn of annual transit revenues. (2.50%), ExxonMobil (2.50%) and ONGC there, with “1Q22 EBITDA should blow past
(BTC) Limited (2.36%). that, rising another 40% to $26bn,” BCS GM
argues.
BTC marks 500mn tonnes of Russia’s Gazprom top blue RUB46 per share (14% dividend yield), some
Dividends on 2021 results should be
oil exports 2.8x 2018’s record of RUB16.6/share, and the
2022 dividend should reset that 2021 record,
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil export chip as European gas prices coming in at perhaps RUB73/share or a 22%
pipeline, operated by BP, has achieved the keep heating up DY.
milestone of 500mn tonnes of oil in total The estimates of BCS GM are based on
from the Sangachal terminal near Baku across BCS Global Markets has reiterated a Buy call export gas price assumptions of full-year
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Ceyhan. on the shares of Russian gas giant Gazprom export price for 2021 at $315 per mcm (1,000
“The milestone was achieved on 12 and maintained the name on the list of Top cubic metres), but the analysts now raise the
December when the 500 millionth tonne of Pick in the Russian Oil & Gas equity universe. 2022 forecast price 50% to $560 per mcm to
Caspian crude flowed through the pipeline Driven by the European gas prices setting better align with futures markets.
[and] was loaded on the 4,922nd tanker new records, the analysts increased the target “This is still a conservative assumption,
named Nordorse, which was a joint SOCAR price for Gazprom’s shares by 2%, making reflecting the fact that c50% of Gazprom’s
lifting, and departed for Trieste (Italy),” the an estimated 47% excess return with a 22% export prices will be set by day and month-
statement released by BP said. dividend yield anticipated in 2022. forward hub prices, implying no small amount
“The 500mn tonnes of oil exports is a As followed by bne IntelliNews, the core of volatility is likely in earnings assumptions
remarkable milestone that winds up 15 years earnings of Gazprom soared to a new record as 2022 progresses,” the analysts argue.
of steady and efficient operations of BTC. in the third quarter, against a backdrop of a The investment case of Gazprom still rests
After so many years the pipeline continues severe supply crunch on the European gas on major catalysts that are still at play. BCS
to be the major artery of energy exports in market that has led to historically high gas GM now expects the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
the region serving as a strategic direct link prices. to be launched by the end of the heating
between the landlocked Caspian and the “Record-high European gas prices finally season, most likely by the end of February.
Mediterranean, which has easy access to the began showing up in Gazprom’s 3Q21

P14 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 01 05•January•2022