Page 27 - TURKRptFeb22

2.10 Polls and sociology
Snap election: Some expect a poll in the spring. Others say June. Still others say autumn. Few believe the country won’t see a contest until June 2023, as scheduled.
Erdogan’s support is not falling below 20%. 3-5% from his junior ally (at most), 10% from pre-election bribery and a maximum 10% from ballot box thievery do not add up to a victory (which requires 50% plus one vote).
This is the reason why Erdogan has not been able to call snap polls yet but the pressure is rising as the official deadline of June 2023 is approaching. Rather than becoming an undeniable dictator, it is less costly to finish the job with a snap poll.
Erdogan’s health: Erdogan is so frail and sick that there is a question mark over whether he will be able to carry on in office, say some observers.
The speculation intensifies the discussion of how the Erdogan regime will end.
The supreme leader’s physical and mental performances certainly seem volatile. Lately, he has always read from teleprompters. Recent months have also been marked by periods of a few days during which he was “lost from view”. And he has had physical difficulties in front of the cameras.
Turkey is said to remain a one-man show, but there has been an unmistakable deterioration in Erdogan’s countenance and demeanour in recent months and it begs some questions:
· Who is instrumental in governing Turkey at the moment?
· Who is using the dictatorial powers Erdogan has amassed?
· Who is writing what Erdogan is reading on the prompters?
· How long can Erdogan continue?
The Erdoganist head of the Union of the Turkish Bar Associations was
ousted in an election.
Never forget: A big earthquake that strikes Istanbul is awaited.
27 TURKEY Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com