Page 20 - UKRRptApr19

4.2 Inflation
Prices 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
CPI headline (%YoY, 16.6 22.3 12.3 9.1 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 13.7 9.4 eop)
CPI headline (%YoY, 12.8 25.3 16 9.4 8 0.6 -0.3 12.1 48.5 14.9 14.5 9.2 average)
PPI (%YoY, eop) 23.2 21.1 15.3 18.8 17.4 0.4 1.7 31.8 25.4 35.7 16.5 9
PPI (%YoY, 20.5 33.6 7.4 21.4 19.9 6 -0.1 17 36.5 20.4 27.2 10.6 average)
Source: ICU, CEIC
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Consumer prices in Ukraine rose 0.5% month-on-month in February
following a 1% m/m growth in January, according to the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat.
The price growth was mostly driven by food, housing and utility prices. Annual inflation stood at 8.8% year-on-year in February vs 9.2% y/y in January.
Food prices grew 0.9% m/m in February (vs. 2.1% m/m growth in January), driven by vegetables (6.6% m/m), fruits (3.6% m/m) and bread (1.2% m/m). At the same time, prices for eggs declined 3.6% m/m, and prices for meat slid 0.9% m/m.
Prices for housing and utilities rose 0.5% m/m, driven mostly by price hikes for water (1.8% m/m) and housing maintenance (1.2% m/m).
As in January, declining prices for clothing and footwear and transportation served as restraining factors for inflation. In particular, prices for clothing and footwear declined 3.5% m/m (vs. a 4.6% m/m drop in January), while transportation prices slid 0.1% m/m (vs. a 1.7 % m/m fall in January).
Core inflation (the consumer basket excluding goods and services with the most volatile prices) slowed to 0.2% m/m growth in February from 0.3% m/m in January. Annual core inflation stood at 7.8% y/y in February vs 8.3% y/y in January.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on March 11 that February’s trends in consumer inflation were similar to those in January. Food price growth has been easing amid increased supply of some goods.
"The hryvnia appreciation by 2.6% in February fostered declining prices for
20 UKRAINE Country Report April 2019 www.intellinews.com