Page 6 - AsiaElec Week 12 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

Meanwhile, the OECD warned that the of wind and hydro, a warm winter and more coal
war will have major economic and social con- nuclear would all be needed for any target to be
sequences on its members, although it offered met.
hope by suggesting that boosting green energy In short, the EU’s proposals will give coal a
and diversifying away from Russian fossil fuels short-term boost, although it will also promote
was needed to soften the blow. the energy transition in the longer term.
It added higher LNG imports and nuclear Despite these fears, international bodies such
power to its list of alternative energy sources, as the IEA have stressed that the war, as well as
alongside renewables and bioenergy, again spell- volatile gas prices, could act as a catalyst to
ing bad news for climate change and emissions quicken the decarbonisation agenda and reduce
reduction. the world’s exposure to Russian gas and oil.

EU targets Russia’s options
The EU has moved more cautiously than gov- Looking ahead, US President Joe Biden’s visit to
ernments, and has as yet failed to adopt any Europe on March 24 could also lead to stronger
EU-wide energy sanctions on the US or UK calls from some EU leaders, especially in East-
model, instead setting targets to reduce imports ern Europe, for tougher sanctions on Russian oil
via demand reduction. Member state them- and gas, following on from the US ban earlier in
selves, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, March.
are divided on sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia has already made noises
Before the war, the EU had instead set a target that it could find alternative buyers of its oil and
of ending dependence on Russian gas by 2030 gas in China and India.
by reducing imports of Russian gas by 100bn However, China has its own green targets to
cubic metres per year – or two thirds of current meet as it aims to reach net zero by 2060. Beijing’s
imports. commitment to reach net zero by 2060 could
However, in response to the war the EU on reduce the potential for Moscow to redirect its
March 8 that it would raise this figure to 155 bcm gas and oil exports away from Europe towards
via its REPowerEU programme, with the first China. It will be neither quick nor easy for Mos-
100 bcm of this being achieved in 2022. cow to pivot its energy exports from west to east,
However, it is open to question whether the according to Wood Mackenzie.
EU would able to meet these aspirations, with Although any detailed picture of future emis-
the IEA saying only 50 bcm of Russian gas can be sions targets has yet to emerge, the continued
replaced in 2022, rather than the EU’s 100 bcm. presence of coal in Europe’s generation sector
Part of the EU’s plans are eminently achieva- weakens Brussels’ rhetoric about reducing Rus-
ble, while others are more ambitious, according sian gas imports.
to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OEIS). As such, Europe, which has so far been the
The LNG and pipeline to replace 63.5 bcm of best performing continent in terms of emissions
Russian gas is available, the OIES said, with car- reductions, faces the prospect of a slowdown in
goes redirecting from Asia to Europe, although its progress towards net zero, while at the same
European prices would need to remain high to time facing the high cost of restructuring energy
attract such cargoes. systems away from Russian gas and oil.
However, proposed 38 bcm reductions in gas Given the pace required to reach net zero by
demand, although feasible on paper, would be 2050, any delays in emissions reductions caused
challenging. by the war will have their own ecological and
A long list of policy reforms, good availability economic impact.™

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 12 23•March•2022