Page 8 - AsiaElec Week 12 2022

AsiaElec COAL AsiaElec

Indonesian coal exports

expect boost from

Ukraine-Russia war

INDONESIA ON the back of figures released earlier in the Beijing’s own increase in output prior to
week that China’s total coal output had expanded March 1 was itself in part the result of late 2020
by over 10% during the first two months of the export bans by Indonesian authorities in Jakarta,
year, and sources claiming that the National just as power cuts and daily blackouts were
Development and Reform Commission affecting Chinese cities.
(NDRC) in Beijing is aiming to put together a And while keen to rid itself of an over reliance
620mn tonne stockpile of coal, analysts are now on imports, China may have no present alterna-
predicting an increase in possible Indonesian tive to Indonesian imports to help offset Russian
coal imports into China. coal deficits.
Currently set at around 300mn tonnes, Chi- Prior to Jakarta’s export ban, throughout
na’s coal reserves have benefited to some extent 2021, China had imported around 123mn
from the increased domestic output – 690mn tonnes of Indonesian coal, with all markers now
tonnes in the first two months of the year – but pointing to this figure climbing further over the
imports over the same period were down 14% course of 2022.
year on year to just under 36mn tonnes, accord- In addition to China, Japan, India and South
ing to the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing. Korea are all leading importers of Indonesian
These factors, coupled with ongoing worries coal. In 2021, over half of all coal produced
over the reliability of future supplies from Rus- throughout the archipelago – 315mn tonnes
sian coalfields as the war with Ukraine drags on, of the total 606.7mn tonnes mined – was sent
and Nato-led international sanctions continuing overseas.
to bite, have some in China now looking south to Recent moves to boost coal-powered projects
Indonesia to help fill any shortfalls. in China include almost 10 GW of coal-linked
Senior economist at Hong Kong’s CLSA (for- capacity planned in the Gansu region in the
merly Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia) Anthony north-west of the country now being pushed by
Nafte has said of the possibility of China import- local authorities. It is understood that two ageing
ing more Indonesian coal, that Jakarta could “do plants are to be reopened in the process to work
reasonably well” in the current climate, as “more alongside increases planned in solar and wind
than 50% of (Indonesia’s) exports are derived power generation in the area.
from commodities, and now you’ve got a posi- One recent study, released by the University
tion where your commodity prices are going to of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability
stay higher for longer.” in the US, also predicts overall coal-powered
With Russia at present China’s second-largest capacity in China as likely to ramp up by a total
coal supplier, any significant or continued dis- of 158 GW before the end of the decade; a result
ruptions to orders placed with Moscow could of 202 GW of new coal-powered facilities com-
increase Beijing’s appetite for Indonesian coal, ing online and the closing down of 44 GW of
both in terms of Chinese buyers looking to existing, ageing facilities.
counter rising prices as well as in guaranteeing The same study also predicts a total coal
required tonnage; “Indonesia’s going to benefit capacity of 1,237 GW to be linked to the Chi-
from the price effect, but also in terms of vol- nese grid between the middle of the decade and
ume” Nafte added. 2030.™

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 12 23•March•2022