Page 8 - MEOG Week 33 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

Issue of US withdrawal the

key obstacle to JCPOA re-up

IRAN THE main obstacle to an agreement that would In May 2018, former US president Donald
reinstate the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran Trump unilaterally withdrew Washington from
and major world powers is reportedly Tehran’s the multilateral JCPOA and opted to hit Iran
insistence on guarantees from Washington. Spe- with hundreds of crippling sanctions in an effort
cifically, that US President Joe Biden’s admin- at forcing Tehran to fall in line with US policy,
istration provides guarantees in relation to which includes limiting Iran’s nuclear develop-
economic benefits the Iranians expect to receive ment programme to the point that it could not be
from sanctions relief and their concerns that a militarised. Prior to that move Iran was seen as
future US administration could unilaterally in full compliance with the nuclear deal, which
abandon the accord. curbed the nuclear programme in return for a
The obstacle was described by an unnamed shield against heavy sanctions. Since Trump
diplomat briefed on the talks cited by the Finan- walked out of the JCPOA, Iran has gradually
cial Times on August 16. The daily noted that broken more and more of its terms and condi-
experts have said it is just about impossible tions and is now widely seen as on the verge of
for Biden to deliver the guarantees Tehran is having enough highly-enriched uranium for the
demanding. making of at least one crude nuclear weapon.
But the diplomat was also quoted as saying Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Ab-
that the US has agreed to extend substantially the dollahian said on August 15 that three “logical”
amount of time that would be given to foreign concerns stood in the way of Tehran signing an
companies operating in Iran to exit the country agreement to bring back the nuclear deal. “In
should nuclear deal-related sanctions be reim- order to take the final step, the US must show
posed. Currently, the time ranges from 90 to 180 flexibility,” Amir-Abdollahian told Iranian
days. The diplomat was reported as stating that media.
the exact timeframe had not been agreed, but He added that the US had verbally agreed
“it’s the best guarantee the US can give”. with two of Iran’s concerns but that they needed
A CNN report described the issue of guar- to be included in the draft text. The third con-
antees as being about “compensation” Iran cern, he said, related to guarantees, but he did
expected to receive should a Biden successor not provide more details.
pull the US out of the JCPOA once more. It “If we reach no agreement, that would not be
also quoted a nameless diplomat, who said: the end of the world,” he said. “They talk about
“The main issue facing the revival of the deal their plan B. We also have our plan B.”
is the guarantees requested from the Iranian The coming days would be “important
side ensuring Iran will be compensated in case days” as regards the fate of the nuclear deal, said
future US administrations decide to withdraw Amir-Abdollahian.
again from the deal and while no real solution US state department spokesperson Ned Price
has been put forth.” said on August 16: “The only way to achieve a
Also on August 16, the EU said it was study- mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is
ing Iran’s response, delivered late on the previous for Iran to drop further unacceptable demands
day, to a draft agreement drawn up at the con- that go beyond the scope of the JCPOA. We have
cluded Vienna talks to save the nuclear accord, long called these demands extraneous.”
or JCPOA. Both the EU and US have described The remaining JCPOA signatories are Iran,
the draft as the “final text”. France, the UK, Germany, China.™

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