Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 45 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Kazakhstan continuing work to

diversify oil export routes

Kazakhstan is anxious to rely less on Russia as an export route for its oil

following disruptions along the CPC pipeline

KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN expects to start sending 1.5mn that project has declined over the years, there is
tonnes per year (30,000 barrels per day) of oil increasing spare capacity.
WHAT: across the Caspian Sea in tankers and through Kazakhstan’s export route diversification
Kazakhstan aims to send the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline next strategy will also involve sending oil to Azer-
30,000 bpd of oil across year, as Astana pushes to reduce its reliance on baijan via tanker to be fed into the Baku-Supsa
the Caspian Sea and Russian routes to market. pipeline, which terminates on Georgia’s Black
through the BTC pipeline Addressing reporters on November 10, Sea coast. Additional volumes would be sent
to markets next year. Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov said that the along the Baku-Batumi railway, although this
government would raise shipments via BTC to would incur extra cost.
WHY: 6.5mn tpy (130,000 bpd) in time. Currently, over These moves would enable Kazakhstan to
Kazakhstan wants to two-thirds, 1.3-1.4mn bpd, of the country’s oil divert some of its oil exports away from Russia,
rely less on Russia as an exports flow to Europe via Russia. But the gov- but it would also mean the country relying on a
export route. ernment is eager to diversify its options, follow- small fleet of tankers to ship the volumes across
ing a series of disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline the Caspian Sea. A further increase in supplies
WHAT NEXT: Consortium (CPC) pipeline this year. would likely require improvements to port infra-
Diversifying export BTC runs from Azerbaijan through Georgia structure on either side of the Caspian Sea, along
routes is a rationale to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where oil can with an expansion in the tanker fleet. Given that
plan for Astana, but will be loaded back into tankers and delivered to the Caspian Sea is landlocked, obtaining these
take years to make a European markets. The pipeline was originally tankers would not be an easy feat, especially
meaningful impact. built only to handle Azeri crude, mostly from given that the main rivers that flow into the sea
the giant BP-led Azeri Chirag Gunashli (ACG) run through Russia.
project in the Caspian Sea. But as output from Kazakhstan has also said before that it wants

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