Page 13 - REM Annual Review 2021

REM M AY REM

to meet the needs of their expanding populations government aims to use the IEA’s report to drive
and economies in a sustainable way.” the conference’s agenda.
n terms of investment, annual outlay of $5 “I welcome this report, which sets out a clear
trillion by 2030 is required, compared with roadmap to net-zero emissions and shares many
$2 trillion today. This would boost economic of the priorities we have set as the incoming
expansion and potentially add 0.4 percentage COP Presidency,” said COP26 President-Des-
points per year to global GDP growth, according ignate Alok Sharma.
to research from the IEA and the International “Our first goal for the UK as COP26 Pres-
Monetary Fund (IMF). ident is to put the world on a path to driving
down emissions, until they reach net zero by
Looking ahead the middle of this century.”
A snapshot of the energy sector in 2050 would
see 90% of electricity generation coming from Electrification
renewables, with solar and wind accounting for The report says that the move to electrifying the
70% and much of the rest nuclear. global economy poses its own risks.
In terms of supply, this means 23,000 TWh of Challenges include the variability of supply
solar (33%) in 2050, 25,000 TWh of wind (35%) from some renewables and cyber-security risks.
and 14,000 TWh of other renewables (20%). In addition, the rising dependence on critical
Other output in 2050 would be 5,000 TWh of minerals required for key clean energy technol-
nuclear (8%), 2,000 TWh of hydrogen (2%) and ogies and infrastructure brings risks of price vol-
1,000 TWh of CCS (2%). atility and supply disruptions that could hinder
This compares with global supply in 2020 of the transition.
27,000 TWh. By 2050, electricity will account The oil and gas industry is set to suffer
for almost 50% of total energy consumption in far-reaching consequences. No new oil and natu-
2050, while fossil fuels’ share will fall from 80% ral gas fields are needed in the net-zero pathway,
to 20% in 2050. and supplies will become increasingly concen-
Fossil fuels would be centred on industrial trated in a small number of low-cost producers.
sectors that are difficult to decarbonise, even OPEC’s share of a much-reduced global oil
though carbon capture technology would be supply grows from around 37% in recent years
widespread. to 52% in 2050, a level higher than at any point
“The pathway laid out in our Roadmap is in the history of oil markets.
global in scope, but each country will need to To conclude, the report offers a way to achieve
design its own strategy, taking into account the Paris Agreement goals by keeping global
its own specific circumstances,” said Dr Birol. warming below 1.5C. This could be accom-
“Plans need to reflect countries’ differing stages panied by universal energy access, 2mn fewer
of economic development: in our pathway, premature deaths from pollution and increased
advanced economies reach net zero before global GDP.
developing economies.” Yet the warning is stark. The path to net-zero
emissions is narrow, the report said, but staying
COP26 on it requires immediate and massive deploy-
The first crucial test for the report will be the ment of all available clean and efficient energy
COP26 conference in Glasgow, and the UK technologies. ™

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