Page 7 - AsianOil Week 06 2022

AsianOil COMMENTARY AsianOil

Both Pavo-1 and Apus-
1 are seen as having
tieback potential to
Dorado.

means that all of the attic oil volumes certified intervals, which were also intercepted in the
by RISC have been negated. The Buffalo joint Dorado field, said Carnarvon in its fourth-quar-
venture will conduct further technical analysis ter report recently. It added that the well was also
in the coming weeks to fully understand why the expected to acquire geological information on
attic was not encountered as prognosed at the two deeper intervals that could unlock further
drilled location.” prospectivity.
However, amid expectations that the Buffalo
joint venture partners are unwilling to fund a What next?
second appraisal well, it appears likely that they Once the Pavo-1 well has been drilled, Car-
will opt to relinquish the asset. narvon is set to turn its attention to drilling
the Apus-1 well, where it will target a mean
Prospects recoverable volume of 235mn barrels of liquids
The disappointment at the Buffalo-10 well and 408bn cubic feet (11.6bn cubic metres) of
does not mean that oil cannot be found nearby, gas. That well will target the Caley and Milne
though. Indeed, the Bedout Basin offshore intervals.
neighbouring Australia is home to prospects Meanwhile, Santos and Carnarvon are pro-
that Carnarvon has described as a “significant ceeding with front-end engineering and design
opportunity”. (FEED) work for Dorado, and a final investment The company said
The company said in an ASX filing on Janu- decision (FID) remains on track for mid-2022
ary 24 that it would demobilise the rig used at according to Carnarvon’s latest quarterly pres- in an ASX filing on
the Buffalo-10 well. Days later, it filed a new entation. Dorado would use a floating produc- January 24 that it
update, saying the Noble Tom Prosser jack-up tion, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit to
rig was mobilising to the Pavo-1 well location in produce 75,000-100,000 barrels per day (bpd) would demobilise
the WA-438-P permit off Western Australia. As of oil.
of February 9, the rig had completed pre-drill Both Pavo-1 and Apus-1 are seen as having the rig used at
preparations and was about to begin drilling the tieback potential to Dorado.
surface hole at the site. Carnarvon’s updates show that it is planning the Buffalo-10
Carnarvon owns a 30% stake in Pavo-1, while for an active year in terms of exploration and well.
Santos operates the project with a 70% inter- production. Though, as the Buffalo-10 well
est. The well is targeting a resource of 82mn shows, even wells for which there are high hopes
barrels of liquids and 108bn cubic feet (3.1bn can still disappoint.
cubic metres) of gas on a gross basis. If drilling Nonetheless, Carnarvon appears optimis-
demonstrates that the project is commercially tic over its current exploration prospects, and
viable, Carnarvon said it could be tied back to has been quick to move on from Buffalo-10.
the Dorado hub, another Santos-operated pro- In an environment where E&P companies
ject in which it holds a stake. The company esti- remain under pressure to be disciplined as far
mates that Pavo-1 has a 34% chance of success, as capital allocation goes, but where the appe-
based on geology. tite for new discoveries is also rising, this may
Pavo-1 will test the Caley and Crespin be unsurprising.™

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