Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 11 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

BP warns oil is yet to peak

despite progress on renewables

GLOBAL BP’S 2022 Energy Outlook warns that oil pro- economic and social costs.
duction has yet to peak worldwide, and that However, looking ahead, the world must con-
more gas will be needed to meet a doubling of tend with demand for electricity nearly doubling
power demand by 2050. between now and 2050 to 50,000 TWh, as global
However, renewables will continue to grow GDP also doubles.
and will eventually become by far the dominant Oil demand peaks in the mid-2020s in Accel-
energy source by 2050. erated and around 2030 in New Momentum.
The share of renewables in global primary In all scenarios oil demand declines by 2050 to
energy will increase to between 35% and 65% by between 25mn bpd and 80mn bpd.
2050 from around 10% in 2019, depending on Coal declines in all scenarios to between 3%
the three scenarios – Accelerated, New Momen- and below 15% of primary energy, compared to
tum and Net Zero – that BP puts forward. 25% today.
The average rate of increased clean power Electricity generation more than doubles by
capacity in the Accelerated and Net zero scenar- 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero and increases
ios is 600GW to 750GW a year in the 2030s and by 85% in New Momentum.
700GW to 750GW in the 2040s.
However, this will require similar progress on Demand
a range of issues, such as transmission and dis- The structure of energy demand had changed,
tribution; availability of key materials, planning with the importance of fossil fuels gradually
and permitting; and social acceptability. declining, replaced by a growing share of renew-
Also, the report was drafted before the cur- able energy and increasing electrification.
rent war in Ukraine, and BP CEO Spencer Dale The transition to a low-carbon world requires
warned that, “Those implications (of the war) a range of other energy sources and technolo-
could have lasting impacts on global economic gies, including low-carbon hydrogen, modern
and energy systems and the energy transition.” bioenergy, and carbon capture, use and storage
(CCUS).
Changes BP’s report looked at three possible future
The report stressed that governments worldwide scenarios for energy: accelerated, net zero and
are now taking climate change seriously, and that new momentum.
there has been movement across a number of The scenarios can be used to identify three
indicators. trends in energy demand which are apparent
“Government ambitions globally to tackle cli- across a range of different transition pathways:
mate change have increased markedly. And key a gradual decline in the role of hydrocarbons;
elements of the low-carbon energy system criti- a rapid expansion of renewable energy; and an
cal for the world to transition successfully to net increasing electrification of the world.
zero – installation of new wind and solar power The movement to a lower carbon energy
capacity; sales of electric vehicles; announce- system leads to a fundamental restructuring of
ments of blue and green hydrogen and CCUS global energy markets, with a more diversified
projects – have all expanded rapidly. There are energy mix, increased levels of competition,
signs of a new momentum in tackling climate shifting economic rents, and a greater role for
change,” Dale said. customer choice.
The report found notes a marked strength-
ening over the past two years in the ambitions Africa
of governments around the world to increase The share of electricity in Africa’s total final con-
the pace and extent to which they reduce carbon sumption of energy increases from 10% today to
emissions. Though the extent to which these 20% by 2050 in New Momentum, almost 40%
greater ambitions will be met is uncertain, they in Accelerated and more than 50% in Net Zero.
at least suggest momentum towards greater The share of wind and solar in electricity gen-
global carbon emission reduction than implied eration grows from 3% today to more than 70%
by many ‘business-as-usual’ type scenarios. in Accelerated and Net Zero.
However, the main concern is that global CO₂ Natural gas production increases only in New
emissions have increased every year since the Momentum to reach 10% of total global produc-
2015, except for 2020, meaning that the carbon tion from 6% today
budget is running out, the report warns. Put simply, renewables become the dominant
Any delay in taking decisive action to reduce energy source in total primary energy by 2050.
emissions sustainably could lead to significant

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