Page 5 - AsiaElec Week 11 2022

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

Asia Indeed, a range of carbon dioxide removals
In China, primary energy rises in the short – including bioenergy combined with carbon
term before declining post 2040 under all three capture and storage, natural climate solutions,
scenarios. and direct air capture with storage – may be
Renewable energy grows strongly in all the needed for the world to achieve a deep and rapid
scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in decarbonization.
Accelerated and Net Zero.
Coal declines dramatically, in Accelerate and Oil
Net Zero it falls to less than 5% of primary energy For oil, demand is set to increase to above its pre-
from over 50% now. COVID-19 level before falling further out.
In India, there is is a strong growth in pri- Declines in oil demand are driven by the
mary energy led by renewables and, to a lesser increasing efficiency and electrification of road
extent, natural gas. This growth is underpinned transportation.
by increasing population, industrialization and However, despite falling demand, the report
prosperity. warned that natural declines in existing hydro-
India’s primary energy consumption more carbon production imply continuing investment
than doubles by 2050, with Renewable energy in new upstream oil and gas is required over the
growing strongly in all the scenarios, becoming next 30 years.
the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Oil consumption peaks in the mid-2020s in
Zero. Accelerated and Net Zero and around the turn
Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that shows of the decade in New Momentum.
growth in levels throughout to 2050 in all Thereafter, oil consumption in Accelerated
scenarios. and Net Zero falls substantially; the declines in
oil demand in New Momentum are slower and
Renewables less marked.
Wind and solar power expand rapidly, account- The key driver transport, where the role of oil
ing for all or most of the increase in global power falls in all three scenarios. In road transport, this
generation, underpinned by continuing falls in decline largely reflects a combination of improv-
their costs and an increasing ability of power sys- ing vehicle efficiency and increasing electrifica-
tems to integrate high concentrations of variable tion. In aviation and marine, the decline in oil is
power sources. driven by the increasing use of bio- and hydro-
The growth in wind and solar power requires gen-derived fuels.
a substantial increase in the pace of investment Also, falls in oil demand are accompanied by
in both new capacity and enabling technologies a shift in the centre of gravity of its use, with oil
and infrastructure. consumption becoming increasingly concen-
Combined installed wind and solar capacity trated within emerging economies. Conversely,
by 2050 increases more than 15-fold from 2019 the use of oil as a feedstock, particularly in the
levels in Accelerated and Net Zero and by nine- petrochemicals sector, will grow in importance.
fold in New Momentum.
The use of low-carbon hydrogen increases as Gas
the energy system progressively decarbonizes, The use of natural gas is supported, at least for
carrying energy to activities and processes which a period, by increasing demand in fast-growing
are difficult to electrify, especially in industry emerging economies as they continue to indus-
and transport. trialize and reduce their reliance on coal.
The production of low-carbon hydrogen is Growth in LNG plays a central role in increas-
dominated by green and blue hydrogen, with ing emerging markets’ access to natural gas. Gas
green hydrogen growing in importance over will also provide a source of low-carbon energy
time. when combined with carbon capture, use and
Likewise, CCUS plays a central role in sup- storage (CCUS).
porting a low-carbon energy system: capturing Global gas production falls in the second half
emissions from industrial processes, providing a of the outlook in Accelerated and Net Zero, mir-
source of carbon dioxide removals, and abating roring the declines in domestic demand in the
emissions from fossil fuels. major gas consuming centres.™

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