Page 8 - MEOG Week 38

MEOG POLICY MEOG

of its natural gas imports, as well as Caspian Sea to Iraq, Syria and Libya and dispatched war-
oil to the hub of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean ships to accompany a research vessel hunting
coast, through pipelines that traverse Tovuz. for hydrocarbons in Mediterranean waters that
“This is a very core security issue for Turkey international law says are Greek. These missions
for energy security,” a senior Turkish energy are reshaping Turkey into an independent global
ministry official told reporters in Istanbul on power, he has said.
condition his name was not used. “We will take “Turkish foreign policy has become
any relevant measures to continue” oil and gas extremely militarised in recent years [and its]
flows from Azerbaijan. military support for Azerbaijan indicates a pref-
Russia dominates Turkish imports of oil, gas erence for confrontation over diplomacy,” Uzgel
and coal, and a decades-old natural gas contract said.
expires next year. The energy ministry official Engagement in the Caucasus would bring
said Turkey is now seeking far more competitive Nato member Turkey into yet another potential
terms in its negotiations with Russia. zone of contention with Russia, with which it
“From the Turkish government’s perspective, maintains complex, frequently shifting relations.
the recent escalation between Azerbaijan and While Russia and Turkey are on opposing
Armenia was the result of Armenia’s—backed sides in Libya and Syria, they have learned to
by Russia—attack against Azerbaijani-Turkish navigate a partnership because of the advantages
energy projects, namely the Baku-Ceyhan oil it bestows, including energy supplies, weapons
pipeline, assuming that Russia might aim to dis- procurement and diplomatic leverage with the
rupt the energy supplies from Azerbaijan to Tur- West, Uzgel added.
key and instead keeping Turkey dependent on In the Caucasus, Russia is Armenia’s main
Russian energy resources,” said Diana Yayloyan, backer and keeps an army base there that serves
a research associate at the Ankara-based think as a bulwark against Turkey, and Russian troops
tank TEPAV. patrol the Armenia-Turkey border. Russia also
“This is a dangerous narrative since it aims maintains close ties with Azerbaijan, supplying
to present Armenia as an unpredictable destabi- the latter with the bulk of its military hardware,
liser in the region—a narrative that Azerbaijan is but Azerbaijan-Russia tensions have spiked,
gladly promoting,” she said. with Aliyev publicly accusing Russian President
The top foreign policy adviser to Azerbai- Vladimir Putin of shipping arms to Armenia in
jani President Ilham Aliyev, Hikmet Hajiyev, the wake of the fighting.
attributed Turkey’s sharp response in part to the In spite of Erdogan’s suggestion of a Russian
potential threat posed to infrastructure projects hand behind the July fighting, Hajiyev said that
linking Turkey and Azerbaijan. That “stronger Baku doesn’t blame Russia.
position was crucially important for Azerbaijan,” “We believe it took Russia by surprise,” Haji-
Hajiyev told reporters in Istanbul at a September yev said. He credited Russian diplomacy for
7 briefing. restoring relative calm. “We do not have any
Political developments at home have also intention to reassess our relations” with Moscow.
influenced Turkey’s strategic thinking in the Azerbaijan sees Russia as the key player in
Caucasus. resolving the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey severed ties with Armenia in 1993, which has defied decades of international medi-
during Armenia’s war with Azerbaijan over the ation and has failed to capture the attention of
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway the current US administration.
majority-ethnic-Armenian part of Azerbaijan. “It’s our belief that it should be a strategic
A US-backed effort to restore those diplo- objective of Russia to see more de-escalation and
matic ties a decade ago withered on the vine. a resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict,”
There is even less appetite for rapprochement said Hajiyev. Russian and Turkish cooperation
now in Turkey, where Erdogan has stoked “is a partnership that can bring security and sta-
nationalist sentiment to shore up support among bility to our region, especially … for the durable
voters hit hard by a deep economic slowdown, lasting resolution of the conflict.”
and to maintain his coalition with an ultra-na- Others are less sanguine. Turkey’s swift and
tionalist party that opposes reconciliation with severe condemnation of Armenia during the lat-
Armenia. est skirmishes is likely to bury the notion it can
The century-old genocide of ethnic Arme- act as an arbiter, said Yayloyan.
nians in the Ottoman Empire also poisons the “With its unprecedented harsh rhetoric and
relationship between the two sides. unilateral support of Azerbaijan, Turkey has not
Erdogan “has sought to keep a national- only further diminished the chances of normal-
ist narrative at the forefront out of concern for ising … its relations with Armenia, which are
internal politics as much as foreign policy,” said almost nonexistent, but also discredited itself as
Ilhan Uzgel, a professor of international relations a potential participant … in the process of the
at Ankara University. peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
In just the last year, Erdogan has sent soldiers conflict,” she said.™

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 38 23•September•2020