Page 61 - BNE_magazine_10_2020

bne October 2020
Opinion 61
The Tajik election – Stick not twist for Moscow
Nizom Khodjayev in Bishkek
Just over a month from now, Tajikistan will hold its presidential election. That’s right, it’s time to keep
a straight face – Central Asia’s poorest nation likes to keep up the pretence that it is a democracy and “Founder of Peace and National Unity, Leader of the Nation” Emomali Rahmon, who has been president or equivalent since 1992 and will turn 68 one week before the October 11 polling day, will inevitably ‘win’ – but the build-up to the poll will at least offer observers a chance to catch up on some of the big issues not yet resolved for the now coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic-crippled country.
Some initial intrigue took hold amid anticipation that Rahmon might push for his son to pick up the presidential mantle and start a “dynasty”. Strongman Rahmon has since a May 2016 referendum introduced some new powers and rules. One change has given him the right to seek as many terms in office as he wishes, another has lowered the age threshold for a presidential candidate’s eligibility to 30 years – the president’s son, Rustam Emomali, turned 32 in December. But whatever the truth about him being groomed to succeed his father, the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Tajikistan on August 26 formally announced Rahmon’s nomination for the election.
Interestingly, there is even a question as to whether the son will ever gain the chance to inherit the presidency. Analysts see the interests of the Tajik elite trumping any secret hopes of family power that Rahmon might have.
“The son is too young, and given the local mentality, this may cause too much irritation among the local elite. Therefore, for now, Rahmon will run the country himself,” Russian Central Asia and Middle East expert Alexander Knyazev told Russian newspaper NG early in August. Knyazev sees Rahmon’s continuous rule as a “calming factor for the local elite."
“Rahmon himself is a guarantor for most of the elite, if not for the entire party involved in power,” Knyazev added. “[The elite] have gotten used to it, they have adapted, all the
Vladimir Putin with Emomali Rahmon after awarding him the Order of Alexander Nevsky three years ago.
redistributions that take place within the elites – financial flows and positions – follow an established tradition. [Wishes to] change the rules and get more preferences under a new president, if desired by anyone, would only apply to a tiny fraction of the elite."
Even if he did turn out to have the backing of the rich and influential, Rahmon’s standing in the country might be at odds with the standpoint of Tajikistan’s former colonial master, Russia. Moscow’s voice has always carried considerable weight in Central Asian politics, as the Kremlin strives to continue wielding its political and military power and influence over former members of the USSR. Russia
is seen as having the capacity to help replace leaders if it proves absolutely necessary.
Russia’s priorities and Rahmon’s failures
"In Moscow... they see growing discontent with [Rahmon] and his numerous relatives who are in power in Tajikistan. And they probably understand that very soon Rahmon will be unable to prevent a social explosion,” an anonymous Tajik expert told Russia’s REGNUM news agency in 2019.
Tajikistan's proximity to conflict-torn Afghanistan might make it a regional security threat should political and social instability set in (Image: Hausibek).
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