Page 63 - BNE_magazine_10_2020

bne October 2020
Opinion 63
infrastructure project – billed as aiming for the world’s tallest dam structure – seen as important to both the country’s energy security and Rahmon’s popularity. The first two turbines of
the Rogun hydropower plant, each adding 600 MW to the country's total capacity, which stood at 5,190 MW at the start of the project, have gone into action. But ageing surrounding infrastructure leaves Tajikistan unable to use Rogun’s full capacity, which means the country still suffers chronic winter electricity shortages.
The situation has deteriorated this year. Tajik state-run energy company Barqi Tojik is set to impose restrictions on electricity supply due to a dramatic drop in water levels at the Nurek reservoir used to generate hydroelectric power. The water level in the reservoir stands 17 metres lower compared to
last year, due to 50% less water in the Vakhsh and Panj rivers that feed into it.
The importance of the dam lies in its ability to “regulate the flow of water into Nurek’s reservoir, preventing it from filling up with ores and minerals”, Farkhod Aminjonov, deputy director of the Almaty-based Central Asia Institute for Strategic Studies, told bne IntelliNews in 2016. “The water entering the reservoir flows along with various minerals and river clays which clog up the bottom of the reservoir, leading the bottom of the reservoir to grow taller year by year.” In several decades’ time, the reservoir could prove incapable of holding water to sustain the plant’s electricity production. This, coupled with low water levels, makes overall electricity infrastructure upgrades an urgent matter for Tajikistan, but the regime has been unable to address the issue in a timely and adequate manner. Rogun is thus seen as 'do or die' for Rahmon's continued rule.
But the fate of the project is already unclear. Sources of funding are a major hindrance to the dam construction. It is not sure that Tajikistan will be able to continue borrowing internationally to fund the project further. The $500mn inaugural Tajik eurobond, issued in late 2017, helped bring the first two units of the Rogun plant online, but with total project costs estimated between $3bn and $6bn, a second attempt to tap into the international bond market is unlikely to bear fruit.
Reliability in paying off debt is certainly not what comes to the minds of international lenders when describing Tajikistan: the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) experience is a telling example. Back in 2008, the IMF had to ask Dushanbe to repay more than $47mn in IMF loans as a penalty for false data the Tajik authorities had provided to it. Blinded by hopes of securing priority loans, the impoverished country had listed its international reserves at $450mn when in truth they stood at $115mn, if not less.
Volatility in the Pamir Mountains
Another elephant in the Tajik room is the ethnic Pamiri population who reside in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO).
GBAO is a volatile region located amid the Pamir Mountains. It fought against government forces during the Tajik civil war that lasted from 1992 to 1997. Prevention of destabilisation in the region is a priority for Russia.
The government cracked down on GBAO in 2018, according to unofficial reports. Fitch Solutions was prompted to say in October of that year that “reports of a government crackdown in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of eastern
“Reliability in paying off debt is certainly not what comes to the minds of international lenders when describing Tajikistan”
Tajikistan highlights the lingering threat of civil unrest to the country's political stability”.
The Fitch report followed a similar analysis conducted
by American geopolitical intelligence platform Stratfor the previous month referring to how the government had reportedly deployed troops to the eastern city of Khorugh, the capital of GBAO, for a “special operation”. While both Fitch and Stratfor saw the possibility of a new regional conflict, Fitch maintained that the heavy presence of Russian troops and Chinese military support made such
a prospect unlikely.
Some elements of disquiet in the region were revived in May this year when hundreds of residents in the mountain town
of Rushan gathered in front of the local security service headquarters. The incident appears to have been triggered
by officers of the State Committee for National Security executing an operation to detain a Rushan resident, Sharof Qobilov, suspected of trafficking drugs from across the Afghan border and leading an organised criminal group. The tense situation was relatively minor compared to previous reported showdowns and crackdowns, but as the coronavirus outbreak takes a toll on people’s lives, the Pamiri population could be prone towards bolder collective action against the centrally directed authorities.
Tajikistan under Rahmon may find itself creaking upon feet of clay as Tajiks realise the election will only produce more of the same.
Elections in the mountainous republic have of course never been considered free or fair by foreign observers. Rahmon officially won the last contest with 84% of the vote. A similar victory in October is a foregone conclusion. What’s not clear is whether Rahmon may run out of luck further down the line."
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