Page 62 - BNE_magazine_10_2020

62 Opinion
bne October 2020
In the event of political instability and a collapse caused by social unrest, Tajikistan could become a major security threat to the region given that the militant conflicts in war-torn Afghanistan could spill over into the neighbouring country. Russia’s standing military presence in Tajikistan would not likely be sufficient to swiftly prevent ensuing chaos. Hence the Kremlin's desire for a competent ruler
in the nation of 9.5mn.
Rahmon is under fire from international human rights groups for a perceived growing disregard for civil society, religious freedoms and political pluralism. Tajikistan lags behind other former Soviet countries in both social and economic development. Since Rahmon emerged victorious from the bloody civil war in the 1990s that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Tajiks, the country has struggled
“Rahmon is under fire from international human rights
groups for a perceived growing disregard for civil society, religious freedoms and political pluralism”
to achieve any significant economic development. Today, most Tajiks still make a living of less than €1,000 ($1,180)
a year within Tajikistan’s $30.5bn economy (132nd in the IMF GDP rankings). Meanwhile, corruption, poor governance and repression remain characteristic traits of Rahmon’s regime. And all of the above adds up to a tense relationship between the government and its people. One that could end badly if mismanaged.
The aforementioned anonymous Tajik analyst argued that “the only legitimising factor [for Rahmon’s rule in the eyes of the Kremlin] may be the presence of a threat from radicals”. As such, Rahmon has continued to crack down on what remains of the Tajik opposition under the guise of clamping down on radicalism, the analyst observed. This mainly applies to former members of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), seen once as the only formidable opposition force in the country. The party was banned and declared a terrorist organisation in 2015.
“The regime of the current president of Tajikistan has exhausted its external legitimacy, especially in front of Moscow,” the analyst said. By pointing to an internal threat of a radical insurgence, Rahmon “shows Russia” that “[if you] take me away [you’ll] get bearded men”.
“The current government in Tajikistan has created an atmosphere in which the only alternative to it comes in the form of radical Islamists,” he concluded. This, in a sense, lets
www.bne.eu
Rahmon hold his power hostage. If he stays, things could
go badly in one way; if he leaves, things will go badly in a different way that will be harder to stomach for the Kremlin.
Yet radicalism is possibly not the only source of concern for Russia. Tajiks are unlikely to have infinite patience with the Rahmon regime, especially given the new economic stress brought about by the pandemic. Opposition groups, including the exiled Group 24, have attempted to rally people against Rahmon, albeit unsuccessfully. But there is some speculation that the decision to bring the election forward to October – traditionally Tajikistan holds its presidential contest in November – may have been taken due to some anxiety over emerging challenges to stability.
"[The polls] will be held for the first time not in November, but in October. Parliament, at the suggestion of the president, set the date a month earlier than usual,” the leader of the banned IRP, Muhiddin Kabiri, told DW in August. “The economic crisis is affecting the situation. There are already regions where limits on electricity use are in effect [following poor rains], and cold weather begins in November. Emomali Rahmon wants to hold elections while there is still electricity in the country and the people are more or less loyal. Without electricity, the mood of the population would deteriorate sharply."
The pandemic-driven and climate change-induced troubles likely tie in to greater fears of instability around the country. One primary risk is the ex-Soviet state’s reliance on deteriorating hydro-energy infrastructure. The regime’s inability to address the compounding impacts of the critical issues thus joins the list of factors signifying Rahmon’s incompetence from the perspective of Moscow.
Ageing energy infrastructure
In 2016, Tajikistan jump-started construction of the controversial 3,600 MW Rogun hydropower dam. It’s a mega
Rahmon at the Rogun dam construction site in 2016 (Image: VoA).