Page 5 - AfrOil Week 08 2023

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

“This election is so different. There will be a lot changed little over the years. Indeed, they largely
of upset people after these elections. A lot of mirror his rival’s agenda, dispensing a flurry of
surprises. Many things will happen in Nigeria, hazy pledges for increased industrialisation,
the political map will change drastically. The security and international cooperation.
world will be shocked at what kind of things will Abubakar is no stranger to corruption, either.
happen after Saturday,” said Seun Okinbaloye, In 2010, a US Senate subcommittee caught his
a leading journalist and host of “Sunday Poli- wives moving more than $40mn in “suspect
tics” and “Politics Today,” two of Nigeria’s most- funds” into the US during his term as vice pres-
watched TV political programmes. ident. Abubakar’s victory is unlikely to throw
Nigeria is young in every aspect: It became a lifeline to the country’s wretched economy,
a democracy only in 1999 after 30 years of mili- plagued by skyrocketing inflation, failed mon-
tary rule and has one of the world’s fastest-grow- etary policies and the tailwinds of the Covid-19 Nigeria is
ing populations – 42% of its citizens are under pandemic, coupled with rising food costs exac-
the age of 15, with a median age of just above erbated by the war in Ukraine. young in
18. However, young people have historically The alternative, anti-establishment can-
been reluctant to vote, disillusioned by elderly didate, Peter Obi, feels to many like a breath every aspect:
and out-of-touch politicians rambling empty of fresh air – not only because he is 10 years
promises. younger than his contenders. It became a
Obi, a businessman and former local gov- democracy
Three-man race ernor, has been the first leader ever to invite
While there are 18 official candidates running Nigerians to “vote for competence” and read the only in 1999
for president, it is seen as a three-man race programmes rather than following ingrained
between Bola Tinubu (All Progressive Congress, religious and ethnic divisions. He also openly after 30
APC), Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic discouraged electors from accepting money in
Party, PDP) and the outsider third-party candi- return for their votes. His programme mentions years of
date Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP). support packages for small businesses, boost- military rule
The first two candidates, both Muslim, rep- ing pan-African trade agreements such as the
resent the “establishment” parties that have gov- AfCFTA and reducing Nigeria’s mounting debt.
erned Nigeria since 1999. Obi, a Christian, is a All of this certainly conveys a less paternal-
younger face, relatively new to the game (despite istic attitude than his competitors, deviating
having previously been a member of the PDP). from the “carrot and stick” approach that has
He joined the centre-left Labour Party – once a prevailed until now in Nigerian politics. Obi
marginal entity scoring less than 1% in previous feels grounded in reality, in touch with a country
elections – in 2021. whose enormous human and economic poten-
A victory for the 70-year-old former gover- tial has been cynically constrained by years of
nor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu, from the APC (the misgovernance and dreadful corruption.
same populist “big tent” party of the incum- Indeed, his pledge to “eradicate corruption”
bent President Buhari), would almost certainly sounds more credible than that of the establish-
bring Nigeria to a standstill. Despite promising ment candidates, whose parties have had the
to backpedal on some of his predecessor’s most chance to run – and ruin – the country for the
controversial and highly unpopular policies, past 20 years.
particularly in the finance sector, Tinubu would As one can imagine, Obi draws much of his
not derail much from Buhari’s track, according support from young, educated and progres-
to his own programme, which vaguely hints at sive elites – the ones forced to flock to Europe
tackling security problems and bringing stability or America after finishing their studies to
to the country, without explaining how to realise avoid being sucked into the country’s chronic
such goals in practice. unemployment.
Tinubu has faced severe accusations of cor- Obi has also been publicly endorsed by the
ruption – which he consistently denied. In 1993, organisers behind the #BringBackOurGirls
he was required to pay $460,000 as a result of a campaign, which in 2014 galvanised Nigeria’s
lawsuit in Chicago after the US federal authori- public opinion raising awareness of the coun-
ties accused him of funnelling drug money into try’s worsening security situation – spurred by
American bank accounts connected to relatives. the outrage that followed Boko Haram’s savage
Just before the 2019 election, two armoured kidnapping of a group of student girls. This
vehicles carrying cash were spotted entering his grassroots movement served as a blueprint for
residence in Lagos. Although Tinubu dismissed his young followers’ group – dubbed “Obidi-
claims that he used the money to purchase votes ents” – very active on social media in voicing
– a common practice in the country – the inci- their frustration with the status quo.
dent did raise suspicions of exactly that. A recent survey by Kwakol Research, a
Tinubu’s “mainstream” contender is the start-up of political and economic analysts,
oil magnate and former vice president Atiku shows Obi as leading in the polls amongst all
Abubakar, a 76-year-old member of the cen- age groups, genders and categories. However,
tre-right conservative PDP – the other major despite Kwakol’s efforts to provide reliable data
party that governed Nigeria uninterruptedly with an accurately crafted forecast model, we
from 1999 until 2015. can assume that young, connected and educated
This election marks Abubakar’s sixth bid people are more approachable by pollsters than
as president, but his promises seem to have rural, elderly voters.

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