Page 6 - AfrOil Week 08 2023

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

This factor has certainly skewed Kwakol’s poll to take place 20 days later. In such a case, some
findings in Obi’s favour. of the other 16 minor candidates are expected
to put their weight behind one of the major con-
The youth vote tenders. “If there is a stalemate, the minor candi-
Young voters’ turnout has not been great in the dates will weigh in. The third and fourth parties
past. This, coupled with the APC and PDP’s will eventually determine how the election go,”
defined division of the territory in loyal strong- notes Okinbaloye.
holds linked to religion and ethnicity, may not Reflecting on how elections have worked
help Obi’s bid for the presidency. in the country until now, with votes swayed by
However, his deft use of social media and populist promises, he says: “If you know that I
curated outreach is expected to draw many like chocolate, you will offer me chocolate to
young Nigerians to the polls for the first time – get my vote. That is what campaigning is like in
and they, indeed, could make a difference. Nigeria.”
“In the past, we witnessed high abstention- But change is in the wind, and a growing
ism from voters, particularly the young. We’ve number of organisations and investigative
had between 35 to 40% of voter turnout. Voter journalists are starting to keep track of politi-
apathy is a major challenge in Nigeria. In this cians’ promises. Nigeria could be regarded as a
election, there’s been a lot of campaigning tar- wrecked democracy by all standards, but its civil
geting the youth, and this seems to have pro- society seems mature enough to claim its stake
duced results,” said Okinbaloye. “Remarkably, in the country’s future, and the youth voice can
out of all new voters that registered, over 70% no longer be ignored. The poll results on Febru-
are young people aged between 18 and 35. ary 25 may prove just that to the world.
Young people now form the larger percentage Obi offers a glimmer of hope to disen-
of the registered voter base, finally reflecting the chanted Nigerians; he has the chance to turn the
country’s demographics. They now account for country’s fortunes around. But the stakes have
about 71% of the newly registered 12mn. That is never been higher: If he becomes president but
a huge encouragement,” he adds. fails to maintain his promises, he will not just
The polls are tight, and the final result is likely have to face public anger and disappointment.
to be decided at a second run-off round between Most unforgivably, he will go down as the last
two frontrunners who will emerge on Saturday, bystander to Nigeria’s decline. ™

Oil, gas demand could fall faster

BP’s Energy Outlook sees demand hit by Russia-Ukraine war, broader energy crisis

BP released its flagship annual report, Energy 95% in Net Zero.
Outlook, at the end of January, forecasting an The latter will also involve a shift in societal
WHAT: accelerated decline in oil and gas consumption behaviour and preferences to support increased
BP expects the decline in as a result of fallout from the Russia-Ukraine energy efficiency and the greater adoption of
oil and gas consumption war and the impact of the broader energy crisis. low-carbon technologies. This is to say that
to gain momentum as a In light of soaring global oil and gas prices, they are scenarios based on predetermined
result of the Ukraine war caused in part by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine outcomes.
and due to the broader
energy crisis. and the subsequent severing of energy ties BP’s third scenario, New Momentum, fore-
between Russia and the EU, countries will pur- casts the current trajectory of the global energy
WHY: sue greater energy security over the next decade, system, based on current trends and known pol-
The quest for increased and this will result in a faster decline in global oil icy directions. It stresses “the marked increase
energy security is likely and gas demand, BP said.At the same time, the in global ambition for decarbonisation in recent
to spur a search for alter- UK major predicts an accelerated shift towards years, as well as on the manner and speed of
natives to fossil fuels. renewable energy – in part because of high oil decarbonisation seen over the recent past.”
and gas prices, and in part because of hydro- The company cautions that “the scenarios
WHAT NEXT: carbon importers developing more domestic are not predictions of what is likely to happen or
The current energy crisis energy supply. And this will mean that global what BP would like to happen.” Furthermore, it
highlights the need for an emissions reduce more quickly, BP said. states that “the many uncertainties surrounding
orderly transition from oil BP outlines three scenarios in its outlook. the transition of the global energy system mean
and gas. The first two – Accelerated and Net Zero – are that the probability of any one of these scenar-
broadly in line with IPCCs scenarios that are ios materialising exactly as described is negligi-
consistent with Paris Agreement goals. These ble.” Nevertheless, the outlook provides useful
scenarios envisage the substantial cut in carbon insight on how global energy trends may play
emissions – 75% in Accelerated and more than out over the next three decades.

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 08 23•February•2023