Page 21 - UKRRptSept19

3.0 Macro Economy
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP , chg yoy
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2.3% -14.8% 4.1% 5.2% 0.2%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Householdconsumption, 11.8% -14.9% 7.1% 15.7% 8.4% chg yoy
0.0% -6.6% -9.8% 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 6.9% -8.3% -20.7% 1.8%
2.70% 4.90%
7.00% 2.50% 4,021 146 3,336 7.10% 8.20%
8.00%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
Industrial output, chg yoy Nominal GDP , UAH bln Nominal GDP, USD bln GDP per capita, USD CPI(eop)
CPIaverage
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
Source: SP Advisors
1.6% -50.5%
-5.2% -21.9% 948 913 180 117 3,891 2,550
3.9% 7.1% 5.0%
11.2% 8.0% -0.7% 1,079 1,300 1,405 136 163 176 2,972 3,580 3,865
-6.7%
-4.3% 1,465 183 4,030
-24.0% -9.2% 20.1%
22.3% 12.3% 9.1% 4.6% -0.2% 25.2% 15.9% 9.4% 8.0% 0.6% 6.9% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2%
0.5% 24.9% 43.3% 12.4% 13.7% 9.8%
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Construction was a pillar of Ukraine’s surprise second quarter 4.6% growth, new number indicates. While retail grew 10% and agriculture grew 12%, construction was up 22% through July, compared to the first seven months of last year. The performance was uneven across the country, ranging from a 12% drop in Ivano-Frankivsk to a 117% growth in Vinnytsia. In Kyiv, home to almost one-quarter of national volume, construction was up 23%. fuelled by consumer and business confidence, commercial real estate construction surged 35%.
Ukraine's new government targets 5% GDP growth next year and at least 7% each year from 2021 to 2024. "Over the next five years, we must work to ensure that the economy grows by at least 40%,” Oleksii Honcharuk, the new Prime Minister, said Monday on a government meeting televised nationwide. “For this, next year we must grow by 5% and in all subsequent years by at least 7% per year.”
Ukraine’s illegal economy in 2018 reached its lowest level in nine years,
the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reported this month. The “shadow economy” accounted for 30% of official GDP, or 2pp lower than 2017, according to its quarterly report on illegal activity. “Such a level of legalizing the economy can be considered to be among the criteria for estimating the effectiveness of introduced reforms and society’s perception of them,” the report said.
21 UKRAINE Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com
18.2% 14.3% -10.1% -13.0% 2.8% 0.4% 1.1%
1,587 1,989 2,383 2,983 3,559 134 91 93 112 131 3,117 2,134 2,193 2,638 3,077
-0.3%
7.8% 9.7% 9.5%
12.1% 48.7% 13.9% 14.4% 10.90% 9.7%
7.8% 8.9%
9.9% 9.1%
2018E 2019E