Page 5 - AfrOil Week 14 2021

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

Nor were they able to clear the area of ASWJ US, Portuguese and other trainers to create a
fighters quickly. Instead, Palma was not declared functioning army,” Hanlon wrote in an opinion
safe until several days later, after the arrival of piece for his Mozambique News Reports and
troops from the country’s regular armed forces, clippings newsletter,
known as Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçam- He also speculated that the company might
bique (FADM). very well decide to drop the Mozambique LNG
Meanwhile, some observers have com- project if local authorities cannot guarantee
plained that Maputo reacted too slowly to the safety, security and improved conditions in the
emerging crisis. Upstream quoted Lionel Dyck, areas where it has been working. “Total has other
the head of Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), a pri- interests in Africa; it has only spent a small part
vate South African security contractor, as saying of the $20bn project cost and can still walk away.
that FADM had been slow to provide support to Even if it returns, it will demand a much more
his men and to local police forces. favourable deal with Mozambique,” he wrote.
For its part, FADM has presented a more
confident face to the public. Chongo Vidigal, a High stakes and big money Total has kept
spokesman for the armed forces, was quoted as The government of Mozambique has an incen-
saying in a Radio Mozambique report last week tive to try to meet such demands. mum about when,
that the construction site was still “protected.” After all, Total is just one of three major
Vidigal also downplayed reports of chaos and international oil companies (IOCs) looking whether or how
destruction in Palma and nearby areas, saying to develop the country’s offshore gas reserves.
that Maputo had never been in doubt about its Maputo is eager to see Italy’s Eni and US-based it might resume
ability to ensure the region’s security. “At no time ExxonMobil proceed with their own Coral work at the
was its integrity at stake,” he declared. South LNG and Rovuma LNG projects. If all
three projects move forward, they will bring at Afungi Peninsula
No clear outcome least $50bn worth of direct investments into the
Even so, it appears that the situation is still very country, while also creating new streams of jobs construction site
much in flux. and budget revenue.
Total has reportedly left its construction site Even so, the ability of FADM and FDS to
entirely in the hands of FDS troops and is now deliver safety and security is far from assured.
concentrating on completing the evacuation As such, the Mozambican government will have
of its workforce. It is providing some support to work hard to overcome perceptions that it is
to the thousands of refugees who have tried to not prepared to restore order in Cabo Delgado.
take shelter in or near its facilities, in the form of It may have to work harder for Total and
food, emergency transportation and evacuation ExxonMobil than for Eni, though, since the lat-
services, but it is also keeping mum about when, ter company intends to install both processing
whether or how it might resume work. and production facilities offshore, rather than
According to Joseph Hanlon, a senior lec- onshore. As Ian Simm, Principal Advisor at
turer at the Open University and a recognised the IGM Energy consultancy, told AfrOil: “The
expert on Mozambique, the French major is attack raises serious medium-term concerns
not likely to resume operations any time soon. about the development of Mozambique LNG,
Officials in Maputo will need time to follow given Maputo’s apparent inability to ensure
up on offers of assistance and military training security. This will also apply to the Rovuma LNG
from foreign partners such as the US and Por- project, though the use of a floating LNG facil-
tugal, he noted.“Will Total return? Not in the ity means that Coral South LNG may be largely
short term. It will take perhaps two years for unaffected.” ™

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