Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 42 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Russia moots plan for making Turkey

a major hub for its gas supplies

Russia is looking to expand the TurkStream pipeline to the capacity originally

envisaged when the project was conceived.

RUSSIA RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has pro- Russia has four routes for sending gas to
posed establishing Turkey as a hub for delivering Europe. First is the Ukrainian gas system, where
WHAT: gas supplies to the EU, in response to the multiple the gas continues to flow despite the war. It had
Moscow and Ankara have leaks that have rendered the Nord Stream 1 and the capacity to flow upwards of 100bn cubic
discussed establishing 2 pipelines inoperable. The proposal has been metres of gas prior to the war, but since then
Turkey as a hub for warmly received by the government in Ankara, Ukraine has shut down one of its two border
Russian gas. but implementing such a project may prove diffi- points, claiming the theft of supplies by Rus-
cult. Turkey could face a potential backlash from sian proxies. Ukraine and Russia are also in a
WHY: the West, while Russia would likely have to cover renewed dispute over gas transit payments, rais-
With the Nord Stream and most of the funding. The project also assumes ing the risk that deliveries could be shut down
Yamal-Europe pipelines that some parts of Europe will continue buying altogether.
now out of action, Russian gas, despite the EU’s ambition to phase Meanwhile, the 33 bcm per year Yamal-Eu-
Moscow wants to expand out imports, and increasing access to LNG and rope pipeline that runs through Belarus and
other export routes. other alternative sources of supply. Poland to Germany has been rendered inoper-
Putin discussed the proposal with his Turkish able since the war started as a result of sanctions
WHAT NEXT: counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the side- and counter-sanctions that Russia and Poland
How much extra gas lines of a regional leaders summit in Kazakh- have imposed on each other.
Europe will be interested stan’s capital Astana. Then there are the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipe-
in receiving from Russia “If Turkey and our possible buyers in other lines, with capacities of 55 bcm per year each.
will depend on EU countries are interested, we could consider Gazprom has acknowledged that a large part of
resolve. building another gas pipeline system and creat- Nord Stream will likely need to be replaced as a
ing a gas hub in Turkey for sales to third coun- result of the leaks. Company CEO Alexei Miller
tries, especially, of course, the European ones, if estimated on October 12 that it would take more
they are interested in this, of course,” Putin said. than a year for the repairs to be completed. One
Erdogan noted that both Turkey and Russia of the two Nord Stream 2 strings is undamaged,
had instructed their respective energy authori- and Russia has suggested it could be used to
ties to immediately start technical studies on the deliver gas if the necessary certification process
plan. According to Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, is completed in Germany. Germany could agree
the project could involve constructing new to do this, depending on the stress that its energy
pipelines in parallel to the existing TurkStream system suffers this winter. Several prominent
pipeline German politicians have called on Berlin to do
“Together with Mr. Putin, we have instructed this, but so far German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s
our ministry of energy and natural resources, government has not raised this option.
and the relevant institution on the Russian side, This leaves only the 31.5 bcm per year Turk-
to work together,” Erdogan said. “They will con- Stream, which runs under the Black Sea and
duct this study. Wherever the most appropriate makes landfall in west Turkey. But one of its
place is, we will hopefully establish this distribu- two strings is used to supply the Turkish mar-
tion centre here.” ket, leaving only 15.75 bcm per year of capacity

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 42 20•October•2022