Page 30 - bne_newspaper_July_12_2019

Weekly Lists
July 12, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 30
bne:Credit
CEE sovereigns to return to debt markets on large scale in 2020, Raiffeisen says
After a series of successful Eurobonds and other debt issuances, the governments of Central and Southeast Europe have already secured most of the funding they need for this year, but with more obligations maturing in 2020 they are expected to return to the markets on a large scale next year, Raiffeisen Research said
in a report.
According to Raiffeisen analysts, the remaining bond redemp-
tions for Central and Eastern Europe this year are quite low at just €7.3bn, though analysts see more issuance potentially from Russia, Romania, Croatia, Ukraine and possibly Poland.
After a very quiet year for bond issues in 2018 the bond market has been active this year as sentiment improves and investors go “risk-on” again, as bne IntelliNews reported in its CEE monthly bond market wrap recently.
The chief economist of Russian state-owned retail bank Sberbank Anton Stroutchenevski says that inflation could end this year at below 4%. If it does that would be well below the consensus.
Inflation fell to a historic low of 2.3% last year, but by the end of the year it had ticked up to around 5% and was spurred on by a 2pp hike in VAT rates in January. However, economists were surprised how fast those inflationary pressures receded and now they are surprised that inflation has continued to fall faster than expected.
The inflation question is important as lower than expected inflation will allow the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut rates more aggressively.
Hungary's headline inflation retreated from a seven-year high of 3.9% in May to 3.4% last month due to falling fuel prices, but infla- tion excluding volatile items also slowed, according to figures from the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on July 9.
The data missed analysts’ estimate slightly on the downside and put an end to a six-month rising trend. On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.2% after rising 0.7% in the previous month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, fell from 4%, or the upper end of Hungary's central bank's, the MNB's, target to 3.8% in June.
Sberbank’s chief economist says Russian inflation could come in below 4% in 2019
Hungarian inflation retreats in June easing pressure on central bank