Page 55 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

bne July 2020 Eurasia I 55
“The ceasefire effort in Cairo was stillborn.
If a ceasefire is to be signed, it should be done at a platform that brings everyone together”
the strategic city of Sirte – located south of the Gulf of Sirte between the capital and second most populous Libyan city Benghazi – as well as the al-Jufra air base and the oil fields to the south. Haftar accepted a ceasefire proposal sponsored by Sisi during a visit to Cairo on June 6, but Sarraj has dismissed the truce, as has Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who told Turkish daily Hurriyet it was simply a ploy to save the commander’s skin following his losses on the battlefield. Said Cavusoglu: “The ceasefire effort in
east as they can go,” Alison Pargeter,
a senior research fellow at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, told Al Monitor, also noting: “So far, however, they have met with resistance in Sirte, which is likely to fight hard against the GNA for a host of reasons, including old animosities between Sirte and Misrata.”
Pargeter said: “The failure of the Tripoli campaign may well have dented some of Haftar’s stature, especially in the international community, but it
is premature to write Haftar off yet,”
Map from libya.liveuamap.com shows the extent of territory controlled by the GNA in the northwest, with most of the rest of the country still under
the LNA. The live map also keeps track of flights (including those carrying suspected military supplies and soldiers) entering and leaving Libya.
has access to two air bases in Libya, strengthening the growing Russian presence around the Mediterranean and there are fears he might want to make that, and perhaps more, a permanent arrangement. The commander of AFRICOM, Gen. Stephen Townsend, said of the Russian move: "Just like I saw them doing in Syria, they are expanding their military footprint in Africa using government-supported mercenary groups."
CNN, meanwhile, on June 9, carried further comments from AFRICOM in which it said: "If Russia is allowed to effectively shape the ultimate result of the Libya conflict, the US, and especially Nato and Europe, will not like the outcome."
Syrian militiamen on both sides
Another intriguing aspect to the new phase of the Libyan conflict is that both Turkey and Russia have been flying in Syrian militiamen from the nine-year- old civil war in Syria to serve as proxy fighters, but this week also saw attention turn to how Egypt might respond to changing events on the ground brought about by Erdogan’s redoubled efforts
to score a success in Libya. There is no love lost between the Turkish leader and
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, but there is also no clear indication
as yet that the latter is contemplating putting boots in the battlezone.
With the 76-year-old Haftar’s 14-month offensive to take Tripoli repelled, Egypt, along with the UAE and Russia, is reportedly active in supporting the LNA effort to fight off a GNA bid to retake
Cairo was stillborn. If a ceasefire is to be signed, it should be done at a platform that brings everyone together. The ceasefire call to save Haftar does not seem sincere or believable to us.”
How hard the GNA will push east is open to question. “There are elements inside the GNA camp who want to capitalise
on recent successes and push as far
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