Page 56 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

56 I Eurasia bne July 2020
Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli-based GNA, meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on June 4 (Credit: Twitter).
The forces of Haftar have had to fall back and regroup (Credit: Magharebia).
become crazed as these areas come under Sarraj’s control. The developments indicate to me that Haftar could be tossed out of the process at any time.”
Haftar derives “all of his power” from Russia but was now on the retreat, Erdogan also said, adding that Turkey sees the capture of areas with natural gas and oil deposits as crucial and “and this upsets Russia”.
Whether the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) will get the backing from the big powers to exert enough authority in its attempt to arrange meaningful talks between the GNA and LNA is another known unknown amid the morass.
Meanwhile, Turkey continues with
its efforts to try and win some game- changing backing from the US and Nato, with top Turkish diplomat Cavusoglu referring to the killing of the US ambassador in Benghazi 2012 in telling NTV television in a June 11 interview: “The US is not very active
in Libya probably because of traumatic incidents. Both Nato and the US should play a more active role in Libya for
the stability [of the country and the region].”
adding, “He still has strong support in the east of the country, and at the moment there is still no alternative to him in the eastern region.”
Fuzzy phone calls
Turkey remains an irreplaceable ally at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East to both Russia and the US and, with the Turkish president adept at playing
responding that they had simply agreed on “some issues” when asked about the substance of their call.
Though US policy on resolving the Libya situation is yet to publicly take shape, analysts can be sure that Washington, not to mention France, Greece and other European countries on the other side
of the Mediterranean, would be
“The most vital areas have been retaken ... and the advance continues. Haftar has become crazed as these areas come under Sarraj’s control”
both sides, this week brought more phone calls between Erdogan and Putin and Erdogan and Trump. As so often, the available information on how those calls turned out was fuzzy.
What Donald Trump – rather busy with his domestic scene nowadays – thinks about matters in Libya remains an open question, despite Erdogan making typically grandiose claims following
his June 8 conversation with Trump, declaring that “a new era between Turkey and the US may start after our phone call” but then obscurely
loath to see strong Turkish-Russian collaboration in deciding how the chips are going to fall.
Interestingly, following his phone discussion with Trump, Erdogan made more comments indicating Turkey might be interested in coming to a deal brokered with Aguila Saleh, head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, as long as Haftar is sidelined. He also touched on Ankara’s interest in Libya’s energy resources, saying: “The most vital areas have been retaken ... and
the advance continues. Haftar has
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