Page 8 - MEOG Week 11 2023

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

Awkward embrace as Iran

and Saudi Arabia seal deal

IRAN / SAUDI THE Middle East’s arch Gulf rivals Iran and have jostled for position in winning favour with
Saudi Arabia on March 10 unexpectedly China. To Iran, China has become extremely
announced they have agreed to restore ties and important economically since the US four years
reopen embassies following four days of talks in ago began its campaign to drive Iranian oil
Beijing brokered by China. exports off world markets. The Chinese have
Tehran and Riyadh severed relations seven continued to buy substantial volumes of crude
years ago. The breaking of the deadlock between from Iran, working on the shadow market.
the two big oil producers will have analysts The Saudis, naturally, remain preoccupied
assessing what impact the new relations could with the issue of how to guarantee that Iran
have on prospects for reviving the 2015 nuclear does not move into the military sphere with its
deal, or JCPOA, between Iran and the major nuclear development programme. The JCPOA,
powers, and on the war in Yemen involving Ira- under which Iran introduced verifiable curbs
nian and Saudi proxies. on the programme in return for the dropping of
The new ties could also have a bearing on how economic sanctions, was seen to be delivering
events now unfold in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, on that objective prior to former US president
strife-torn countries where the rivalry between Donald Trump unilaterally pulling Washington
largely Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is a big out of the multilateral agreement in May 2018
factor.. in favour of deploying the heaviest sanctions yet
Reporting the deal to set aside differences in faced by Tehran.
favour of diplomatic relations, official Iranian However, in the years since the US exit from
state news agency IRNA cited a joint statement, the deal, Iran has gradually upped its enrichment
reading: “As a result of the talks, Iran and Saudi of uranium to the point that the Americans say
Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations that, should Tehran take a decision to do so, it
and reopen embassies … within two months.” could assemble enough weapons-grade fissile
The Saudi Press Agency confirmed the material for a nuclear bomb within 12 days.
agreement. It said the two countries had agreed After the deal on relations was announced in
to respect state sovereignty and not interfere in the Chinese capital, the US cautiously welcomed
each other’s internal affairs. Riyadh broke off ties the agreement. White House National Security
with Tehran after Iranian protesters attacked Council spokesman John Kirby said the admin-
Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran in 2016 fol- istration supported “any effort to de-escalate ten-
lowing the Saudi execution of the Shia cleric sions in the [Middle East] region”. But he added:
Nimr al-Nimr. “It really does remain to be seen if Iran is going to
Nour News, a media outlet linked to Iran’s meet their obligations.” Israel did not comment.
supreme national security council, ran footage After speaking in London earlier this week,
of Ali Shamkhani, the council’s secretary, at a the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Far-
Beijing signing ceremony with Saudi Arabia’s han al-Saud, was reported by the Guardian as
national security adviser Musaed bin Moham- saying he did not think the Saudis would have
med Al-Aiban and China’s top diplomat, Wang any additional demands as regards Iran’s civil
Yi. “After implementing the decision, the foreign nuclear programme than those presently out-
ministers of both nations will meet to prepare lined by the West, while adding: “I believe we
for exchange of ambassadors,” Iranian state TV can when we are at the table make it quite clear
reported. to the Iranians that this is not just a concern of
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign distant countries, but it’s also a concern of its
minister, said: “The return of normal relations neighbours. Those neighbours would move into
between Iran and Saudi Arabia provides great seeking better normal relations. So if we make
capacities to the two countries, the region and clear that this is part of reassuring us, I think that
the Islamic world. The neighbourhood policy, as may help them find it more acceptable to engage
the key axis of the government’s foreign policy, in such a process.”
is strongly moving in the right direction, and One thing to Saudi Arabia’s advantage when
the diplomatic apparatus is actively behind the it comes to relations with Iran is that Riyadh
preparation of more regional steps.” refused to join the Abraham accords that nor-
The sealing of the deal in Beijing took observ- malised relations between Israel and some Arab
ers by surprise. Talks between Iran and Saudi states in late 2020. The accords infuriated the Ira-
Arabia have continued for years, but mainly in nians who saw them as selling the Palestinians
Iraq or with intermediation conducted by Oman. down the river.
What’s more, there has been friction in recent Israel, meanwhile, has grown increasingly
months between the Iranians and Saudis as they angry that Iran has been allowed to move to the

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