Page 9 - MEOG Week 11 2023

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

point where it might soon be viewed as a nuclear Russians combat sanctions – geopolitical ana-
threshold state. Hardly a day goes by without lysts will also look at what the new Saudi-Iranian
someone in the Israeli government warning that situation might mean in terms of Riyadh poten-
Israel would not tolerate such a status and would tially aligning more closely with Moscow. More
mount a military attack on Iranian nuclear facil- cooperation between Moscow, Beijing, Riyadh
ities should it look like becoming imminent. The and Tehran could spell trouble for Western cap-
US is keeping its cards close to its chest on the itals, and Ukraine.
matter, on the one hand advising all hope is not As news of the agreement struck in Beijing
lost in terms of attempts to get talks on reviving came through, there were many in Iran who
the JCPOA back on track, but on the other hint- – possibly quite right – downplayed its signif-
ing darkly that it would not stop short of joining icance, with some mentioning that perhaps it
bombing missions aimed at Iran if that’s what it should be the Lebanese who are happiest of all as
would take to stop the Iranians from getting the the deal might mean a bit more economic stabil-
atomic bomb. ity for Beirut, where the rivalry between Iranian
For the Saudis, the decision to strike up new and Saudi influences can be intense.
relations with Iran, via talks brokered by China, One analyst, who previously worked with the
signals to the world that Riyadh will pursue a for- Iranian foreign ministry and asked to remain
eign policy independent of the West. anonymous, concluded that the “deal is not as
Prince Saud was further quoted as saying big as it seems,” adding that “symbolically it may
in London: “China is our largest trading part- sound big but strategically it doesn’t change how
ner. It is also the largest trading partner of most Tehran acts in the region”.
countries. And that is a reality that we will have A former diplomat with the Iranian foreign
to deal with. China, for us, is an important and ministry, who also asked for the withholding
valued partner in many areas. We have excellent of his name, said: “The last Iranian leader who
working relationships across many sectors. But attempted to bridge the gap between Tehran and
we have said and repeat this, always, we will look Riyadh was Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani [presi-
towards our own interests. And we will look for dent of Iran from 1989 to 1997] and there seems
them in the west and in the east.” to be no view that [current Supreme Leader of
With Iran already increasingly allied with the Islamic Republic of Iran] Ayatollah [Ali]
Russia – sending combat drones to the Kremlin Khamenei has changed his position on the Sunni
that are used in the Ukraine war and helping the state.”™

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