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the alliance. We have tripled the size of our response force. More presence in the air, on land, the sea – in the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea. And all this of course demonstrates to Russia that there will be consequences if they once again use force against and independent sovereign Ukraine.”
Some have suggested that by moving up troops closer to Ukraine, but in insufficient numbers to threaten an actual imminent invasion, Putin is creating a new Cuban Missile crisis to get some leverage over the White House in possible talks. His intention is to hammer home that the recent increases in weapons delivery and military aid is destabilising and Russia won’t tolerate Ukraine being turned into a “giant unsinkable aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s border,” as Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center called Ukraine last week.
"Obviously, since [the last build up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border in] April Moscow has discovered that a new Cuban Missile Crisis over Ukraine could be very effective in getting Biden’s attention and inflaming his desire for a personal engagement with Putin," said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat in the United States who is now a foreign policy analyst, as cited by Reuters.
The calculation seems to be that, as Biden clearly wants to downgrade the “Russia problem” so he can concentrate on China and domestic politics, that gives the Kremlin real leverage over the White House by demonstrating its ability to escalate the situation with Ukraine at will. The hope would appear to be by escalating, the White House will be willing to cut a quick deal or give the guarantees on freezing the situation with Ukraine – the “red lines” that Putin is talking about – so that the US can move on to deal with its foreign policy priorities.
In a big foreign policy speech last week, Putin said Moscow had no appetite for war, but suggested that Russia's posture in eastern Europe was paying some dividends and making its adversaries take heed.
"Our recent warnings have had a certain effect: tensions have arisen there anyway," Putin said. "It is important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible, so it does not occur to them to stage some kind of conflict on our western borders... we do not need a new conflict.”
The Kremlin leader then ordered Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to push for serious long-term guarantees from the West that he said could ensure Russia's security.
Russia has taken a much harder line with the west since Lavrov gave a new rules of the game speech in February where he said that Russia was no longer willing to accept the dual policy in the west of imposing value-based sanctions with one hand and asking for cooperation in solving big geopolitical problems or doing business with the other. Moreover, Lavrov went on to say shortly afterwards that Russia was willing to break off diplomatic relations with Europe entirely. And teh Kremlin went as far as actually breaking off diplomatic relations with Nato entirely in October.
Part of the explanation could also be that the US is playing the same card on Russia that the Kremlin played in April: deliberately fanning the flames of war
20 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com