Page 21 - RusRPTDec21

talk in an effort to unite Europe around its backing of Ukraine and negate the threat of Russia’s troop movements.
One element that supports this take is that the concerns about the Russian troop build up have largely been driven by the US intelligence services. Russia did move up some powerful new military units close to Ukraine, but the White House has called the Kremlin's bluff by playing up these moves to make Russia look like an aggressor and put it into a defence position, forcing it to deny its spoiling for war.
The fears began with a Washington Post report at the end of October and that has been followed by regular statements. But what is different from the April build up is the lack of supporting evidence on social media and also the apparent lack of concern in Kyiv or any visible signs of preparation for war by Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine’s border guards and military did start a large exercise this week, but on the border with Belarus that was designed to stop migrants crossing over in Ukraine.
“One of the interesting things about the latest uptick in “is Russia about to invade Ukraine?” speculation is that (unusually) it’s been western countries talking it up - not Ukraine,” Jonah Fisher of the BBC tweeted at the weekend.
The US administration has been aggressively pushing this story with largest part of the reporting on the tensions still sourced from US intelligence reports and statements from a wide variety of senior US officials. Unlike the very public build up of Russian troops in April, the amount of social media footage
showing troop movements and local reports from the ground on social media to support the story is significantly less.
If this is a ruse by the White House to define the terms of the upcoming summit then it seems to be working. The Kremlin has sounded increasingly shrill in denials of an ill intent and its complaints about the US ignoring its “red lines” have become lost in the noise. In its place the talk of new even harsher sanctions is back that has already hit both the value of the ruble and ended a year-long stock market rally.
If the Kremlin’s goal was to scare the west into backing off Ukraine and limiting its arms deliveries then the current warmongering has created a climate where military aid to Ukraine could easily be increased – and indeed many are calling for just that.
The date of the summit has not been set, but both the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Department of State are actively talking on the terms of the meeting.
If this clash follows the same playbook as the last clash in April then the tensions will fade away very fast after the meeting. Both sides have indicated that they have a common interest in winding down the tensions and are already actively negotiating restarting many of the Cold War era arms control deals. But the tension remains prickly and both sides have shown themselves to play the big geopolitics game as they attempt to thrash out some sort of new working relation.
21 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com