Page 14 - GLNG Week 13 2021

GLNG AUSTRAL ASIA GLNG

AEMO: LNG imports can delay

Australian gas supply shortages

PERFORMANCE THE Australian Energy Market Operator “This development comes at a critical time, as
(AEMO) has said an anticipated shortfall in nat- existing Victorian production is declining faster
ural gas supplies can be delayed as long the coun- than previously projected,” Falcon said. “Our
try begins importing LNG by the end of 2023. annual analysis shows that without the [PKGT],
In its annual Gas Statement of Opportunities the decline in flexible gas from existing fields
(GSOO), which was published on March 29, the would mean we need to rely heavily on storage,
operator said it predicted an improved outlook and increasingly on constrained pipeline infra-
for gas supply until at least 2026 across the east- structure to meet the needs of gas consumers,
ern and south-eastern gas systems as long as cer- especially during high demand days in winter,”
tain parameters were achieved. she said.
It noted that the outlook was more optimis- AEMO’s GSOO also highlighted that the It noted that
tic as long as committed field developments and gas sector was on the cusp of transformation,
pipeline expansions proceeded as planned and with changes in consumption patterns forecast the outlook was
the Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) entered and alternative supply sources being actively
operation before the 2023 winter. developed. more optimistic
Squadron Energy is developing the LNG “Australia’s energy sector is going through
import project at the titular New South Wales a rapid transition, driven by changes in con- as long as
port and aims to supply more than 75% of the sumer behaviour and efforts to decarbonise the committed field
state’s annual gas needs once the facility is up and system,” Falcon said. “This report recognises
running. the potential of electrification, fuel switching to developments
AEMO, however, warned that southern sup- hydrogen, the Australian Government’s vision
ply was at risk if PKGT was delayed and certain for a gas-fired recovery and LNG imports to all and pipeline
conditions emerged, such as a 1-in-20 maximum influence investment opportunities in the gas
winter daily demand in Victoria, coincident sector.” expansions
peaks across southern regions, power-system She added: “Investments to address forecast proceeded as
events significantly increasing gas-powered gen- supply gaps in the second half of this decade
eration (GPG) of electricity, or gas production need to consider the transformation under- planned.
outages. way and be adaptable to manage changes in gas
AEMO’s manager of forecasting, Nicola Fal- consumption. There are a number of initiatives
con, said the announcement of the PKGT had at both Commonwealth and state government
improved supply capacity with an estimated levels that could change the market and impact
injection of up to 500 TJ (13.02mn cubic metres) the outlook described in the report, including
per day. proposals to drive more gas into the system.”™

P14 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 13 01•April•2021