Page 4 - AfrOil Week 18 2021

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

eninsula (Photo: T
Mozambique LNG construction site on Afungi P
otal)
Mozambique LNG construction site on Afungi Peninsula (Photo: Total)
Wider implications of unrest

in northern Mozambique

Amid doubts about an SADC plan to send troops to Cabo Delgado, Mozambican

authorities should consider working with Tanzania to contain Islamist militants

UNREST in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pan-
northernmost province, has already had a sig- demic, and it could delay further (or abandon
WHAT: nificant economic impact. the $30bn plan altogether) if northern Mozam-
ASWJ attacks have Attacks perpetrated by Ahlu Sunnah bique remains in turmoil.
already disrupted Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist militant group,
Mozambique’s economic recently led France’s Total to declare force Multi-lateral action
prospects. majeure on Mozambique LNG, a $20bn scheme But the problems in Cabo Delgado are not
that calls for the development of Area 1, a huge just economic. They are also worrying from
WHY: offshore natural gas field, and the construction a humanitarian perspective. ASWJ’s bid to
Concerns about a spill- of an onshore gas liquefaction plant. This decla- gain control of northern Mozambique has led
over of the conflict have ration is anticipated to set work on the project hundreds of thousands of people to flee Cabo
led SADC to contemplate back by at least a year, so it is bad news for the Delgado, and the number of refugees may soon
a multi-lateral military
initiative. service companies that were counting on work- reach 1mn. Meanwhile, most of the displaced
ing for Total as contractors or sub-contractors. are living in very poor conditions, with few pros-
WHAT NEXT: The suspension of work on Mozambique pects for improvement in the near term.
If reports of Nyusi’s pref- LNG also has the potential to disrupt other The refugee crisis has also sparked political
erence for bilateral deals large-scale gas projects. ExxonMobil (US), the concerns, as it has raised the prospect that ASWJ
prove true, Tanzania operator of the Rovuma LNG project, is also attacks could lead residents of Cabo Delgado to
could be a useful ally for planning to build an onshore complex to pro- flee to neighbouring countries, such as Zimba-
Mozambique. cess gas from its offshore site, known as Area 4. bwe or Zambia. These worries may have helped
It postponed its final investment decision (FID) convince the South African Development Com-
on the Rovuma LNG project in 2020, citing munity (SADC), a regional multi-lateral group,
concerns about low global energy prices and the to consider intervening in Mozambique.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 18 05•May•2021