Page 5 - AfrOil Week 18 2021

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil

Last week, security officials from SADC’s with military training, as preferable to multi-lat-
member states gathered in Maputo, the capi- eral initiatives such as the troop deployment that
tal of Mozambique, to discuss the situation in SADC is contemplating.
Cabo Delgado. At that meeting, delegates from
Angola, Botswana, South Africa, Malawi, Tanza- Tanzania: A potential partner?
nia and Zimbabwe called for sending a regional If this is true, then Nyusi ought to consider the
African force consisting of nearly 3,000 troops to prospect of a bilateral security deal with Tanza-
northern Mozambique. nia, for several reasons.
The proposal drew sufficient support for it For one thing, Tanzania has already indi-
to be slated for presentation to SADC’s heads cated that it is willing to send at least some of
of state during a summit scheduled for the first its soldiers to Cabo Delgado. Its representative
week of May. at last week’s SADC was part of the group that
It also won applause from NJ Ayuk, the exec- endorsed the proposal to deploy nearly 3,000
utive chairman of the African Energy Chamber. troops in northern Mozambique. Nyusi ought
Ayuk told the Journal of Petroleum Technology For another, Tanzania has a direct interest
last week that he believed SADC’s plan would in quelling the unrest in Cabo Delgado. ASWJ to consider
help curb conflict in Cabo Delgado relatively fighters have attacked multiple villages near the the prospect
quickly. The group’s military force should be Mozambique-Tanzania border over the last few
able to obtain results quickly enough, he said, years, and they even struck a Tanzanian border of a bilateral
to allow Total to resume work in “less than 12 post last October. Incidents of this type have led
months,” he commented. Tanzanian authorities to deploy troops near the security deal with
border in a bid to protect the southern part of
Doubts about Maputo the country. Tanzania
However, this optimistic take appears to have Furthermore, Tanzania’s government ought
been premature. SADC has not formally to understand what is at stake. The administra-
adopted the plan, as its summit has been post- tion of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who
poned indefinitely. took office after her predecessor John Magufuli
The ostensible reason for the delay is that only died in March of this year, is eager to revive a
one of the group’s three-member security team large-scale LNG project.
would be able to attend the meeting in Maputo This scheme, known as Tanzania LNG,
this week. Some observers believe, though, that bears some similarity to Total’s plan, as it calls
SADC’s plans are being derailed not by unex- for major international oil companies (IOCs) to
pected logistical complications but by deliberate develop offshore gas fields and send their pro-
interference from Mozambique’s government. duction to an onshore facility for LNG produc-
As evidence, they have cited Mozambican tion. And if ASWJ starts targeting Tanzanian
President Filipe Nyusi’s past assertions that his territory in earnest, it will face risks similar to
government did not want or need foreign assis- those that forced Total to stop work on Mozam-
tance to address problems in Cabo Delgado. bique LNG.
They have also pointed to security sources’ In short, if Nyusi wants bilateral deals, his
reports that the Mozambican leader sees bilat- administration ought to consider working with
eral deals, such as the agreement his administra- Tanzania against ASWJ. The conditions for a
tion recently struck with Portugal for assistance deal are already favourable, in some respects.

anzania LNG plant would be built in Lindi (Image: Equinor)
The proposed T
The proposed Tanzania LNG plant would be built in Lindi (Image: Equinor)

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