Page 8 - MEOG Week 44 2021

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

and Japan have already set a 2050 net-zero target, do in the next 10 years.
there is as yet no global consensus on agreement Put simply, existing goals for 2030 are
on making a global commitment to net zero by nowhere near enough to lay the foundations for
2050, instead leaving the decision to individual further milestones in 2050 and 2100.
states and setting a vague “mid-century” date. Russia
China and Russia have set 2060, not 2050, as Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend
deadlines for net zero, while India has not set the conference, but said by video link that Russia
any date. aimed “not just to reach carbon neutrality, but to
make sure that within the next three decades, the
NDCs amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia is
The good news is that more and more countries lower than, for instance, that of our neighbours
have submitted their Nationally Determined and colleagues in the EU.”
Contributions (NDCs). Russia is expected to reiterate its carbon neu-
A long list of developed countries, including trality goals and to bargain for the recognition of
the UK, the EU, Japan and most recently Aus- some of the pillars of the country’s greenhouse
tralia, have set 2050 as their target date for net- gas emission reduction strategy.
zero emissions, while China has committed itself These include full recognition of the absorp-
to 2060. tion capacity of its forests (1.2mn tonnes of CO2
However, far more controversial, and more equivalent, out of which half is lost in forest fires
open to debate and disagreement, will be any tar- and deforestation), as well as the “green” status of
gets for 2030. While updated or new NDCs can atomic and hydropower energy.
be effective in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) VTB Capital (VTBC) analysts expect the
emissions over time, an increase of about 16% COP26 political agenda to be dominated by
in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to mini-deals that various groups of countries can
2010 is expected for the aggregate NDCs of 192 support.
countries. These include country-specific carbon neu-
Such an increase in emissions translates to a trality targets, a ban on coal-fired capacity export
global average temperature rise of about 2.7°C by financing, a global methane pledge and FACT
the end of the century. initiating deforestation prevention.
“We are nowhere near where science says we Russia could join the carbon neutrality com-
should be,” cautioned UNFCCC Executive Sec- mitment (by 2060) and offer only verbal sup-
retary Patricia Espinosa. She urged countries to port to the global methane pledge, while VTBC
“urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are doubts that Russia will join the remaining two
to prevent global temperature increases beyond initiatives at this moment.
the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2°C – Russian 2030 NDC “will not envision any
ideally 1.5°C – by the end of the century.” meaningful CO2 footprint reduction, and we
The UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) see carbon markets as the most critical develop-
stressed that even if current net-zero pledges set ment, opening the route toward carbon-neutral
out in NDCs were fully implemented, these Russian products and new revenue sources for
pledges could bring the predicted global tem- those corporates that undertake green projects
perature rise to 2.2°C. domestically,” VTBC analysts commented.
This is set to be a key area for debate and dis- Russia is the fourth-largest economy in terms
pute in Glasgow. While there is consensus on of GHG emissions and is in general keen for
long-term goals for 2050 and 2100, governments countries to pursue their own fossil fuel agendas
are much less likely to agree on what they should for as long as possible.

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 44 03•November•2021