Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 27 2022

FSUOGM PIPELINES & TRANSPORT FSUOGM

Russian seaborne oil exports recover in

week to July 1, but Asian shipments down

RUSSIA RUSSIA’S seaborne crude oil exports in the seven weeks ending April 15.
days up to July 1 rebounded from a slump in the Russian shipments to China were at a rate
Russia has resorted to previous week, Bloomberg reported on July 4, of 887,000 bpd in the most recent four-week
selling more oil to Asia but deliveries to Asian markets are declining. period, while flows to India were at 641,000 bpd.
to offset declines in The drop in Asian shipments comes despite However, according to Bloomberg, both of those
European sales. Russia diverting oil flow to its Black Sea terminal, volumes are anticipated to grow once the desti-
in order to cut the voyage time to India. Russian nations become known for about 180,000 bpd of
exporters have had difficulty in recent months crude laden on tankers that are yet to indicate
shifting their product onto international mar- their final discharge locations.
kets, given problems with transactions caused Meanwhile, shipments to Asian countries
by Western sanctions and some buyers shun- beyond China and India have virtually ceased,
ning cargoes. However, China, India and others with cargoes heading to Japan and South Korea
have stepped up shipments, taking advantage of from Russia’s Pacific terminals now a rare
the steep discount that Urals and other Russian occurrence.
blends are currently trading at. Over in northern Europe, Russia has already
Overall crude flow from Russian ports was up lost nearly two-thirds of its market for seaborne
23% week on week, making up for much of the shipments, even though the deadline for the EU
loss the previous week, when shipments briefly enforcing its ban on this trade is still five months
ceased from the Baltic port of Primorsk. Never- away. According to Bloomberg, the volume of
theless, shipments to Asia were down by more Russian oil that goes to this market has stabilised
than 15% on both a weekly and a four-week aver- at 400,000-450,000 bpd since the end of April,
age basis compared with highs seen at the end and most of that is heading to storage tanks in
of May. Rotterdam.
Overall Russian seaborne shipments returned The G7 group of countries and their allies
to 3.67mn barrels per day (bpd), broadly in line are currently debating how a price cap could be
with the plateau level achieved since the start of imposed on Russian oil, limiting how much the
April. However, in the four weeks to July 1, ship- Kremlin can make from its energy exports to
ments averaged only 3.46mn bpd, representing finance its war in Ukraine. However, as News-
their lowest level since the period ending April Base has explained, the price cap could prove
14. tricky to implement, and may well backfire by
Asian countries are still receiving over half of driving up the global price of oil.
the crude shipped from Russian ports, but their Former Russian President Dmitry Medve-
share is slipping, according to Bloomberg. In dev claimed on July 5 that the price cap proposal
the most recent four-week period, flows to Asia could lead to significantly less oil on the market
accounted for 52% of Russia’s total seaborne and could cause prices to soar above $300-400
exports, down from a high of 63% in the four per barrel, up from $100 at present.™

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 27 07•July•2022