Page 4 - AfrElec Week 50 2022

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Apocalypse 2050: World on

course for 15% GDP fall

GLOBAL The world is set to see global GDP plummet by 1.5-degree goals, it did not make any new agree-
a catastrophic 15% by 2050 if current emissions ments that are binding on governments on how
trends are not reined in and global warming to it.
reaches 2.2°C by 2050. This lack of any new agreement on climate
Oxford Economics warned in the latest targets raises the importance of Oxford Eco-
report of its Global Climate Service that climate nomics’ apocalyptic warnings.
catastrophe was a major threat to the global While COP27 failed to lay out new concrete
economy, with cooler countries no longer ben- targets, such measures are needed with the
efiting from modest warming. utmost urgency in order to protect the world’s
Yet the extend of the threat is staggering, people from the economic fallout of climate
with a 15% contraction likely if global emissions change.
paths are followed. Indeed, total economic anni- Yet not is all bad news. The world has slowly
hilation could happen if global warming contin- started to make inroads into boosting renewa-
ues at its current rate towards a 5°C increase by ble energy, even if CO2 emissions growth has yet
2100, the report warned. This would mean mass to turn the corner.
extinction of most animal species, reinforcing The International Energy Agency (IEA) said
the concern that the world cannot physically or earlier this month that solar was set to overtake
economically cope with continued temperature coal as the world’s leading source of power sup-
rises. ply by early 2025. It also announced its “largest
ever upward revision” for its renewable energy
Findings forecasts.
The research group identified a tipping point of The world is now set to add 2,400 GW of
1.1°C for temperature anomalies from average green capacity – an amount equal to the entire
levels. Its research found that if temperatures rise power capacity of China today – between 2022
beyond this departure from historical norms, and 2027, twice as much as it did in the previous
then productivity growth will begin to flatline five years.
and fall. Yet there is no room for lethargy, and govern-
In aggregate, 2.2°C of warming by 2050 ments need to maintain the green momentum
has the potential to reduce global GDP levels and to avoid any slippage in the race to net zero.
10-20%. Crucially, this compared to the 6.5% For example, the UN recently identified
reduction that Oxford Economics previously greenwashing by business and finance as the big-
forecast. gest danger facing this race to net zero, urging
Looking further ahead, warming of up to them to avoid a toxic cover-up and to ensure that
5°C by 2100 would lead to economic annihila- any climate pledges they keep are in line with the
tion, consistent with scientific research on mass 1.5-degree targets.
extinction thresholds. Greenwashing, weak regulation and inten-
Put simply, if climate change continues at sive lobbying by fossil fuel proponents were the
current rates, or even just fails to meet the Paris greatest impediments to fighting climate change.
Agreement targets of 1.5°C, then large swathes of The business sector cannot be trusted to police
the world could no longer become inhabitable, itself, the UN said, and must be subject to strict
leading to mass human suffering, mass migra- national and international laws and regulations
tion patterns from hot to cooler countries and on green investment.
the meltdown of the global economic system. Meanwhile, the world’s wealthiest people
The report chimes with one of the conclu- must also step up and make a greater contribu-
sions to come out of COP27: that climate change tion to fighting climate change.
is no longer just a climate or environmental Oxfam recently said that the investments of
problem, but is now a political, economic and the world’s 125 wealthiest people produce the
social issue that must be addressed if humankind same amount of CO2 as the whole of France,
is to continue living the life it currently knows while each of them emits a million times more
and to avoid a human apocalypse. greenhouse gases (GHGs) than the average
However, while the conference’s final com- person.
munique reaffirmed the UN and governments’ Billionaires’ investments create an average
desire to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement’s of 3mn tonnes per year per person of CO2,

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