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In a pessimistic scenario, Rosstat estimates that the Russian population will shrink by as much as 8% to about 134mn by 2036. In this scenario, birth rates will decline and net immigration will be clearly lower than previously seen, albeit positive. In the optimistic scenario, immigration to Russia will increase so much that Russia's population will even increase by about 2%. In this scenario too, the number of deaths exceeds the number born in Russia.
In all Rosstat scenarios, Russian life expectancy seems to continue to rise. In the baseline scenario, life expectancy for men in 2035 would be around 75 years (now 68), while women's life expectancy would be almost 83 years (now 78). Life expectancy has been raised by, among others. reduction in alcohol and tobacco consumption.
According to the UN Population Forecast, Russia's population will shrink to 141mn by 2035, and the number of people of working age (15-64) will decline particularly rapidly. There are significant differences between the UN and Rosstat forecasts estimates of net immigration. Traditionally, Russia has been emigrated from Central Asian countries and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union. As the standard of living in these countries rises, it may not be the case for Russia as much as before. At the same time, emigration from Russia EU countries, the United States and Israel continue.
2.4 ​ ​Watcom shopping index finishes 2019 on five-year high
The Watcom shopping index finished 2019 on a high note, putting in its best result in five years after under-performing for almost the whole year.
The index posted a score of 647 in the last week of the year – the biggest shopping week of the year in Russia – ahead of the 625 last year and 605, 579, 620 and 630 in the previous years respectively.
“Consumer activity showed growth for the first time since 2014 in 2019, according to Watcom Shopping Index data. The low dynamics of commercial space commissioning, as well as other factors, contributed to shopping index growth in Moscow in the third quarter by 5.2%. In Russia on the whole it grew by 1.1%, and as a result, for the whole year the whole country was down by 0.7%,” Watcom Group general director Roman Skorokhodov said.
10​ RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com