Page 12 - RusRPTFeb20

2.5 ​Russian business and consumer confidence
Business confidence fell by another point in December to -6 ​from -5 in November after fading all autumn. However, business confidence in Russia is very seasonal. It always improves in the spring to reach its highest levels in the summer months, before decaying again the in autumn.
This year’s winter depression was better than last year when confidence fell from -2 in the summer to a low of -8 in December. And it was almost on a par with 2017 when confidence turned briefly positive to 1 in June before falling to a winter low of -5.
Business confidence usually improves dramatically in January and continues to improve until the summer months.
Consumer confidence is a lot less seasonal​ and was improving noticeably in 2018 before being knocked back in the last quarter of 2019. Over 2019 it was improving slowly from -16 in the first quarter to -13 in the last quarter.
Consumer confidence should improve further in the first quarter of this year after real wages rose sharply at the end of 2019 and inflation was falling fast. The conditions are ripe for a pick up in consumption that will also lift confidence.
12​ RUSSIA Country Report​ February 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com