Page 11 - AsianOil Week 49 2022

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Chinese gas demand up, imports down

PIPELINES & CHINESE imports of natural gas up to the end suspect markets are being played to some degree
TRANSPORT of October saw demand increase 2% on the same in making this claim.
month a year earlier, and 9% up from figures Verifiable Chinese government statistics
There are no signs that posted in September. do point to LNG import figures having taken
gas imports will recover Perplexing many, however, were reports that a significant hit in the January-to-October
this year. at the same time demand is up, gas import num- period, though; these are down 21.6% on 2021
bers continue to drop, and there are no signs of numbers.
significant recovery until at least next year. Should the decline continue into November
As with much in terms of muted Chinese and December, typically two of the most impor-
energy imports of late, the somewhat contra- tant months of the year as reserves are put in
dictory figures have been put down to a sense place to deal with the winter cold, China may
of lethargy and all-round economic stagnation even drop to number two on the world’s LNG
across the nation as a result of ongoing COVID rankings chart behind Japan. This would come
lockdowns. after last year's imports of 109 bcm of LNG,
A lack of information both in China, and for 21.3% of the global share.
the international community to act upon, does But with import figures for the year to date
not help. barely clearing the 50 bcm level by the end of
Yet despite the sluggish business outlook, October, few expect the 2022 total to get any-
seasonal demand for gas across the country is where near the numbers posted a year ago.
reported to be on the increase, with gas con- To this end, it is seen as increasingly likely
sumption figures as released by the National that a drop in overall imports coupled to limited
Development and Reform Commission efforts by the government in Beijing to move
(NDRC) for October reported at 30.53bn cubic past the zero-COVID policies will see the China
metres (bcm) in October. National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) posting its
The final import figures for November have first ever drop in final import numbers sometime
yet to be released but typically rise as the year in January or February.
progresses and colder temperatures take hold. On the back of annual increases of around
To date, though, overall gas consumption up 12-13% for the last 17 years, just how this rever-
to the start of November has done little more sal affects consumer confidence in China and the
than mirror numbers posted in 2021 at the wider world remains to be seen.
height of the pandemic. At least one report, released by the Oxford
As such, the 9% jump between the end of Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) in the United
September and late October has only served to Kingdom, has claimed that there are limited
bring the consumption total up to 299.93 bcm: a “signs these trends will change in the near term,
figure one percentage point down on the first ten barring a very cold winter that could lead to a
months of last year. small uptick in gas, and likely LNG, demand.”
This has led to government sources in China, Similarly downbeat were projections for a
even after appearing upbeat on demand, now significant recovery in import numbers anytime
claiming that overall gas imports for the year soon, with the OIES predicting another slow year
to date have shown monthly decreases for the for gas imports throughout 2023, even if the Chi-
first ten months of 2022, although some analysts nese economy does start to pick up. ™

Week 49 13•December•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P11