Page 101 - Minutes of meeting

The Productivity Challenge Forecast FTE Growth (2017-33) in Cumbria

Employment Forecasts Area 2017 FTEs 2033 FTEs (number) Change (%)
Change

Allerdale 34,500 34,700 200 0.3%
Forecasts from 2017 to 2033 project zero net growth in FTE* jobs in Barrow 27,000 27,000 0 0.0%
Barrow during this period. This compares unfavourably with Carlisle 51,500 52,300 800 2.2%
increases above 1% in South Lakeland, 2% in Carlisle, and a Copeland 30,300 30,100 -200 -1.4%
marginal increase in the wider county of Cumbria. Eden 23,200 23,300 100 0.4%
South Lakeland 46,200 46,500 300 1.1%
These projections do not account for the impact of the Coronavirus, Cumbria 212,700 213,900 1,200 0.6%
which is likely to depress FTE growth in the short term (<5 years), FTE Growth (2017-33) in Cumbria by Sector
although the longer term impact is not yet known. Nevertheless, the

projections remain significant, being based on long term trends
underpinned by structural factors of the economy.

The manufacturing sector is predicted to lose 5,300 FTEs by 2033
across the Cumbrian economy. The significant presence of
manufacturing in the Barrow borough indicates that Barrow is likely
to be most exposed to drivers of change in the sector such as
automation. Education and Public Administration will also both see
decreasing FTEs in the County, this will also depress FTEs growth in
Barrow where these sectors account for over 11% of total jobs.

Loses in these sectors in Barrow will be offset by growth in the
Health sector, in which FTEs are forecast to grow across Cumbria by
13% to 2033. Transport & Storage and Construction are predicted to

grow c.15% to 2033, which will bolster FTEs in Barrow where these
sectors jointly account for 7% of jobs.

Source: Experian; *FTE refers to Full Time Equivalent measure of employment accounting for part time work