Page 83 - Mariners Cricket Club (Singapore) - Souvenir Magazine 2020

ECONOMY in a Changed World

– Chayan Mazumdar –

T he world will never be the same again; let me start by using that cliched which

has never been more true.

The onset of the pandemic earlier this year was widespread across APAC, and
not just ASEAN, and even much more devastating in other continents leading to a
sharp slowdown in the previously projected growth sector. While the IMF was quick
to declare recession in all major economies, the ultimate outcome so far has been very
interesting, in my opinion.

When I looked at some data shared by Asian Development Outlook, the fi gures indeed
look grim (growth was well below 1%, down from a forecast of 4.6%). Singapore, often
referred to as the crown jewel in Asia was humbled and declared a worst-case scenario
of GDP shrinkage by 4%. The supply chain disruptions, travel restrictions, and
lockdowns have had extensive consequences. Many businesses have been forced
to halt their operations, if not close down altogether, leading to corporate as well as
household loan defaults. Financial markets have never been as volatile as this, primarily
due to the foreign investments getting moderated caused by increasing risks of trade
tensions with China.

The world can continue its denial but you have to admit that the current economic
shockwaves are because China is ASEAN’s biggest trade partner and investor(~17% trade

share and 6.5% FDI inflows in 2018). You take this lifeline out of the fragile south-Asian

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