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FMR 64 Trafficking and smuggling 39

June 2020 www.fmreview.org/issue64

The same ruler for everyone: improving trafficking
estimates

Joshua Youle and Abigail Long

Current guidelines for measuring the prevalence of trafficking are inadequate. Improving the
accuracy of trafficking estimates will require comprehensive, standardised guidelines which
have been rigorously tested in the field.

Donors increasingly call upon their grant programme would need to be implemented
recipients to conduct survey research in at that same level. However, most anti-
order to estimate the number of victims of trafficking organisations usually implement
trafficking in a target region or industry. programmes at a sub-national level, focusing
Donors use these estimates to plan resource on a handful of municipalities and often
allocation, inform programme design, a specific type of trafficking. It would be
and engage with other governments. They difficult to demonstrate using the GSI data
also look to these estimates for empirical that any such anti-trafficking programme
proof that an anti-trafficking programme contributes to a decrease in national
is reducing the prevalence (the number of prevalence, given the many other forces
detected victims) of trafficking. However, at play on a national level. While the GSI
most organisations do not include prevalence continues to refine its methods and is likely
of victims as an indicator of success because to be able to produce sub-national estimates
there are no comprehensive, standardised in the future, due to the immense expense
guidelines which academics or researchers of compiling the index the exercise is only
employed by these organisations could carried out approximately every two years.
feasibly use to implement prevalence For an organisation to use it as a baseline
estimate methodologies. This means the organisation would need to coordinate
researchers develop survey instruments its intervention with timing of GSI data
and methodologies that, although context- collection, which is not always possible. Thus
specific, do not benefit from systematic for national or regional programmes, the GSI
field-testing, are difficult to broaden out for figure can only provide indications of trends.
general use and do not lend themselves to In 2012 the International Labour
prevalence comparisons. Those prevalence Organization (ILO) published survey
estimates that have been published so guidelines² which contain detailed steps for
far have faced criticism and scepticism. national governments to implement a survey
Existing guidelines are not inclusive and on forced labour, including definitions,
are challenging for smaller organisations (a assessment tools, ethical considerations and
considerable proportion of those engaged guidance on data analysis. Although useful
in fighting trafficking) to implement. for governments looking to obtain the full
picture of forced labour in their country the
Current metrics guidelines are limited. The ILO itself called
The Global Slavery Index (GSI) provides these guidelines “a starting point” and
national and regional estimates of the number we believe it is now time to expand them
of people in modern slavery.¹ It receives to include additional methods targeting a
considerable media attention and its figures wider research audience. The International
are frequently cited by organisations and Conference of Labour Statisticians, which is
governments. The most granular estimates convened by the ILO, published guidelines
that the GSI provides are at a national level. on the measurement of forced labour in
In order to provide a useful metric of success 2018 that largely focus on randomised
for an anti-trafficking programme, the household or establishment surveys.³