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FMR 64 Trafficking and smuggling 41

June 2020 www.fmreview.org/issue64

of sampling the results are seen as being Recommendations
representative of the general population, even This leads us to make three recommendations
though not every member of the population that we feel would help drive better data
had an equal probability of being selected. collection and management and lead to more
However, snowball sampling in anti-trafficking accurate estimation of trafficking prevalence:
studies tends to start with a known group
of people who are connected to victims or Develop comprehensive standardised
who are victims themselves. Consequently, guidelines: Given that no methodology
the final estimate is likely to over-report provides a fully comprehensive estimate,
prevalence of trafficking in the general guidelines are needed in order to help groups
population. The true prevalence estimate is determine which method to use based on
likely to be somewhere between the estimates demographic factors, type of trafficking and
produced by random and snowball sampling. their budget and timing constraints. These
Multiple systems estimation is based on guidelines should be evidence-based, meaning
lists of trafficking victims detected and recorded that there needs to be further testing of each
by local authorities. It requires a country to method. They must focus on returning the
have at least two lists from different sources most precise estimates possible, in order for
with a minimum of around 80 victims.⁵ This researchers to be able to confidently detect
technique is most frequently employed in high- the effect that a programme has had on
income countries that have strong data systems. prevalence. Survivors should be consulted
While these methods provide a tremendous in the development of the guidelines and in
insight into the prevalence of trafficking, no the implementation of each methodology.
single method provides a complete picture
of the extent of the crime or of the victims’ Utilise an impact evaluation methodology:
experiences. Each method has advantages Conducting and comparing prevalence
in relation to evaluating certain types of estimates at the beginning and end of
crimes, environments or populations and, programme implementation can show an
correlatively, each has its drawbacks. The chief increase or a decrease but only through setting
difficulties have centred on researchers’ lack of up a control group can a change in prevalence
awareness of situations in which individuals be attributed to the impact of the programme.
are particularly vulnerable to being trafficked While this impact evaluation methodology
and the frequent inability or unwillingness does not have to be used for every programme
of respondents to identify themselves as it should certainly be used for new
having experienced trafficking. This may programmes and to inform decisions about
be because of fear of stigma (no matter how whether to expand existing programmes.
strong the assurances of confidentiality);
because respondents may not know that Involve new academics: Trafficking is an
they are victims of trafficking; or because interdisciplinary topic that would benefit from
they fear retribution from their trafficker. the focus of a greater number and variety
Another problem is the reliance on primary of researchers. When looking for partners,
data for measuring programme success. organisations should target emerging
Organisations increasingly see the value scholars and academics not customarily
and importance of strong data collection and engaged in the trafficking arena, possibly
management practices, but it will indeed take from fields such as criminology, sociology,
a sea change before best practice principles social work, economics, demography and
are integrated into every organisation. If public health. Their fresh perspectives
data collection and management practices can unearth new insights and help make
were stronger, these could be heavily much-needed progress. Combatting
relied upon to validate estimates or even to trafficking requires a scientifically rigorous,
develop estimates where there is insufficient interdisciplinary response that does
budget to carry out new data collection. justice to the experiences of the victims.